Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for September 20 (Back Burnes, Peterson, Musgrove)
With a little over a week to go till the end of the regular season, I'm still grinding it out, looking for the best bets out there for quality starts.
It gets a little wonky this time of year when teams are trying young pitchers and different lineups, whether they've clinched a postseason spot or have been eliminated.
For those reasons proceed with more caution than usual, but here are four games from the Friday slate that I like.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Rays Prediction and Pick
Two teams playing out the string in all likelihood meet in Tampa, with one having a decided advantage on the mound.
Jose Berrios has 20 quality starts on the season, not to mention a 16-9 record and 3.44 ERA in 30 starts.
Berrios is opposed by Tyler Alexander for the Rays, who are still mathematically alive, but on life support.
The Toronto bullpen has been an issue all season, so I'm going to hopefully avoid that by taking the Blue Jays first 5 money line.
Toronto is 21-9 in Berrios starts and average 5.29 runs when he starts.
PICK: Toronto First 5 Money Line -118
Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Pick
The red-hot Detroit Tigers head to Baltimore to take on the fading Orioles, with a matchup of Corbin Burnes vs Keider Montero.
Some have soured on Burnes, but he's thrown 21 quality starts in 30 outings on the season, the Orioles are 19-11 when he pitches and average 5.64 runs per Burnes start.
Montero has only four quality starts in 15 outings on the season and has a 5.34 road ERA in 2024.
I like the matchup of the veteran Burnes vs. the rookie Montero in this one.
PICK: Baltimore Orioles Run Line -1.5 +125
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction and Pick
The Mets aren't going to catch the Phillies, but they are fighting to stay ahead of the Atlanta Braves in the Wild Card race.
That gives the emotional edge to the Mets, plus they are playing at home and to top it off have the better pitcher on the mound in this one.
David Peterson has quietly racked up a 9-2 record and 2.85 ERA and recorded 11 quality starts in 19 times out.
Cristopher Sanchez has been good for the Phillies and I've backed him several times this season, but believe in this spot the Mets and Peterson are the right play.
PICK: Mets Money Line -109
Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction and Pick
I've avoided the White Sox this season because it's a no-win situation (almost literally).
This bet is more about the Padres, who I came away incredibly impressed with after last weekend's series win against the Astros along with their record since the All-Star Break.
Joe Musgrove is on the hill for the Padres and he has eight quality starts in 17 total starts, with the Padres going 10-7 in those starts.
Musgrove will be opposed by Garret Crochet who has 11 quality starts on the season, due to the White Sox dialing him back to four or fewer innings since July.
That means at least four innings of the horrid White Sox bullpen against an impressive San Diego lineup.
The White Sox are 9-21 in Crochet starts and average 2.7 runs.
PICK: Padres Run Line -1.5 -110
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.