Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for September 24 (Back Fried and Manaea)
In the final edition of Counting on Quality for the 2024 season, we've found two games that still matter and happen to fit our criteria for pitching advantages based heavily on quality start data.
It's been an interesting year and quite the learning process for me and bittersweet right to the end.
As an example of the vagaries of betting on baseball, Tuesday's picks found me a two-out, bottom-of-the-ninth home run (that didn't impact the outcome) away from a perfect 3-0 mark, but also a triple play in the bottom of the ninth away from a 1-2 mark for the day.
In short, it's been a wild ride and the lessons learned will be applied next season, but first let's look at our final two picks of the regular season.
Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves Preview and Prediction
Both of these teams still have something to play for, though with the Tigers starting 40 minutes earlier the writing may be on the wall for the Royals at first pitch.
The Royals are throwing Brady Singer who has 12 quality starts in 31 starts on the season, but is only 3-5 with a 4.25 ERA on the road.
Atlanta counters with Max Fried who has 15 quality starts in 28 outings on the season.
The Braves are 16-12 in Fried starts, with Atlanta averaging a tick over 4 runs per Fried start and while Fried is just 3-4 at home, he does have a respectable 3.66 ERA in Atlanta.
The mismatch is reflected in the -200 price on the money line for the Braves, pushing me to the run line, which I can get at a plus number.
Pick: Atlanta Run Line -1.5 +105
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview and Prediction
The Mets have a game lead on Atlanta, but face three games in Milwaukee and a double header in Atlanta on Monday.
The Brewers are locked into the three seed in the National League and don't have much to play for this weekend, other than setting their rotation and staying healthy.
Midseason acquisition Frankie Montas is going for the Brew Crew, battling Sean Manaea for New York.
Montas has three quality starts in 10 outings for Milwaukee since the trade.
Manaea is the author of 15 quality starts on the season and the Mets are 23-8 while averaging over five runs a game in his starts.
Manaea's been even better lately and the Mets have won his last 8 starts and 15 of his last 17.
This game means a ton to the Mets and nothing to the Brewers and the bullpens are sure to be used accordingly.
PICK: Mets Money Line -131
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.