Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for September 3 (Back Sale and Rodon)
September brings us plenty of young starting pitchers to evaluate and consider as rosters expand and teams give younger arms an opportunity in the rotation.
That sometimes leads to getting cute and shortcutting the process that we believe helps win games, namely quality starts from your starting pitcher and more generally an advantage on the mound.
I've been as guilty of that as anyone, but not today. Today I'm going with two known quantities and while that comes at a price, I'm confident in the results.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves Prediction and Pick
Right off the bat we have veteran Chris Sale who's having a phenomenal year in Atlanta with 15 quality starts, a 15-3 record and 2.58 ERA.
The 35-year old Sale has gotten stronger as the season wore on and finished August with four consecutive quality starts with the Braves winning all four to move to 18-7 on the season when Sale starts.
As Rockies pitchers go, Kyle Freeland hasn't been bad and he's thrown eight quality starts in 16 total starts on the season with Colorado actually having a winning record when he starts (9-7).
That's a minor miracle considering his 5.51 ERA and 101 hits given up in just 85 innings pitched.
Atlanta is good at home (36-28), while the Rockies aren't good anywhere, but are particularly putrid on the road at 19-50.
The Money Line is too expensive, so we're taking the Run Line on this one and even that is somewhat expensive.
PICK: Braves Run Line -1.5 -149
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Prediction and Pick
Carlos Rodon has 13 quality starts on the season, but had an up and down August that included just one quality start in five outings.
This is about matchups and one August game Rodon didn't get a quality start in was a 5.2 shutout innings against the Rangers on August 11 in the first game of a doubleheader.
Rodon is opposed by Andrew Heaney, he of the 4-13 record, 3.95 ERA and run support under four runs per game.
The Yankees are 16-11 in Rodon starts averaging 5.39 runs per game, while Texas is just 9-17 when Heaney starts.
The Yankees have been very good on the road, going 43-27 away from the Bronx, while Texas is only 36-33 at home.
Texas is still dangerous at times, but this is not the same feared Texas lineup that won a World Championship last fall outside of Corey Seager.
The Rangers are currently 22nd in average and OPS+ and 23rd in slugging.
It's also September and with the Rangers 10 games behind the Astros and 9.5 games out of the Wild Card with 24 games to go, the white flag has all but been waved in Arlington.
PICK: Yankees Money Line -135
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.