Cowboys vs. Vikings Prediction: You Can't Make me Believe in Minnesota

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88)
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) / Mike De Sisti / Milwaukee Journal

We all have to start respecting the Minnesota Vikings and Kirk Cousins with their win over Buffalo last week and their 8-1 record right? WRONG. We do not have to respect them as a good team, ever and Vegas isn’t either. The 6-3 Dallas Cowboys are favorites on the road up in Minnesota and by now you might know that I just can’t help myself when it comes to fading the Vikings. 

Let’s get right into the odds for this crucial NFC matchup. 

Cowboys vs. Vikings Odds, Spread and Total

Cowboys vs. Vikings Odds, Spread and Total Movement in NFL Week 11

This line opened as a pick’em, but has moved in Dallas’s direction. The total has moved up from 47. 

Cowboys vs. Vikings Prediction and Pick

The Minnesota Vikings haven’t been able to fix their pass defense all year. That is such a big issue in the modern NFL and I can’t comprehend how it hasn’t cost them.

They have a 22.2% pressure rate which is middle of the pack defensively. The impressive thing is that they do it with a very low blitz rate, but they allow the fourth most pass yards per game, the second most yards per attempt, and their defensive average depth of target is 8.6. That means teams are not afraid to throw downfield on them even despite the defensive front. 

Well do they do a great job stopping the run then? No, no they do not. They allow 4.5 yards per carry and have allowed 10 touchdowns on the ground. This is a new team with Mike Zimmer gone and it was a good thing to fire him, but they sure do miss his influence on the defensive side of the ball. 

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys passing game hasn’t been outstanding, but Tony Pollard has been dynamic in the backfield, Ezekiel Elliot should be back this week to help with short yardage, and Ceedee Lamb had his breakout last week in Lambeau Field. Lamb had 11 catches for 150 and two touchdowns. He isn’t Justin Jefferson, but he also doesn’t have to go against one of the best defenses in the league. I don’t trust Kirk Cousins anyways, but especially not with Micah Parsons in his lap all game. 

Pick: Cowboys -1.5 (-110)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change