Creighton vs. San Diego State Prediction and Odds for NCAA Men's Tournament First Round
Creighton made a run at the Big East Conference Championship, but fell short in the final game to Villanova.
The Bluejays have a shot at redemption in the NCAA Tournament, and the committee has given them a No. 9 seed in the Midwest Conference. They're set to take on No. 8 San Diego State in the first round, with the winner likely facing No. 1 Kansas in the Round of 32.
SDSU also lost in the final of its conference tournament, falling to Boise State by a final score of 53-52 in the Mountain West Championship Game.
Here are the odds via WynnBET for this first round matchup, as well as some analysis, trends, and my prediction for the game.
Creighton vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread, and Total
Spread:
- Creighton +2.5 (-110)
- San Diego State -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Creighton +120
- San Diego State -145
Total:
- 120.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Creighton vs. San Diego State Betting Trends, Insights, and Analysis
Creighton
- Overall Record: 22-11
- ATS Record: 17-14-2
- Over/Under Record: 11-21-1
- SoS: 39th
- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 105.6
- Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 92.1
- eFG%: 50.9%
- FT%: 72.9%
- 3PT%: 30.7%
- Last Year's Tournament Result: Sweet 16 (lost to Gonzaga)
- Odds to win National Championship: +20000
San Diego State
- Overall Record: 23-2
- ATS Record:17-13
- Over/Under Record: 12-18
- SoS: 73rd
- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 104.4
- Defensive Efficiency: 86.1
- eFG%: 49.1%
- FT%: 69.8%
- 3PT%: 35.4%
Last Year’s Tournament Result: Round of 64 (Lost to Syracuse)
Odds to win National Championship: +15000
Creighton vs. San Diego State Prediction and Pick
This is an all-time bad matchup for Creighton, and I'd be shocked if they find a way to win this game. They have two glaring holes that has plagued them all season, and they're going to cost the Bluejays in this game.
They enter the tournament ranking 304th in the country in turnovers per possessions, coughing up the ball on 20% of their possessions. Now they face a San Diego State team that is arguably the best defensive team in all of college basketball. It ranks first in defensive efficiency, and 29th in opponent turnovers per possession.
The other glaring weakness is their three-point shooting. The Bluejays rank 314th in three-point field goal percentage, hitting their shots from beyond the arc at a rate of just 30.7%. Unfortunately, that seems to be the only way to the Aztecs, who boast one of the best interior defenses in the country.
This is a nightmare situation for Creighton.
Pick: San Diego State -2.5
Check out Iain's detailed 2022 college basketball betting record here.
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