Creighton vs St. John's Prediction and Odds (Back Creighton To Cover In Low-Scoring Contest)

The 15-11 St. John's Red Storm hope for revenge when they host the 18-8 Creighton Blue Jays today at 6:30 PM EST. Creighton beat St. John's 87-64 last month at home behind torrid outside shooting and have won three straight against the Red Storm.

Both teams have been kind to bettors lately, with the Blue Jays winning five straight and the Red Storm going 8-2 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10. So which team should we roll with to stay hot, or does value lie on the over/under instead?

Here are the odds via WynnBET:

Creighton vs St. John's Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Creighton: +5 (-110)
• St. John's: -5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Creighton: +170
• St. John's: -210

Total:

• 150 (Over -110/Under -110)

Creighton vs St. John's Prediction and Pick

Creighton has owned this matchup recently. In the last three games between these two, the Blue Jays have won each by at least 15 and have covered the spread by an average of 12.5 points per game. Their strong defense, which ranks 13th nationally in opposing effective field goal percentage, has smothered the Red Birds and they've lit up a St. John's perimeter defense that allows opponents to shoot 35.8% from beyond the arc.

St. John's strength is in using their fast tempo to generate easy looks inside, but Creighton's 9th-ranked 2-point defense is a brutal matchup for them. And with a poor free throw rate and lackluster shooting percentages when they get there, the Red Birds will need to make outside shots to stretch the Blue Jays defense out or they won't be able to score at all.

The Red Birds have covered the spread in three straight as a favorite, but those games came against teams that rank outside of the top-275 in 2-point defense in Butler and Georgetown. When they play elite interior defenses like Creighton's, they tend to struggle.

The Blue Jays are 5-2 ATS as a road underdog this year and won four of those games outright. St. John's is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a home favorite and I think Creighton makes them 3-9 tonight.

I'm on the Blue Jays to cover the modest spread but I'm also on the under 150. I think the Red Birds will struggle to score and Creighton is unlikely to shoot over 50% from beyond the arc again. The under is 6-1 when the Blue Jays are a road underdog and with the scoring issues and relatively low free throw attempts (both teams rank outside the top 275 in free throw rate), I don't see this game eclipsing 150 points.

Pick: Creighton +5 (-110) and UNDER 150 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.