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Creighton vs. Tennessee Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

By Reed Wallach

March 23, 2024, Charlotte, NC, USA; Tennessee Volunteers guard Dalton Knecht (3) is defended by
March 23, 2024, Charlotte, NC, USA; Tennessee Volunteers guard Dalton Knecht (3) is defended by / Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
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Creighton and Tennessee each advanced to the Sweet 16 in thrilling fashion. The Vols won on Saturday night despite an off-shooting night to hold off Texas while Creighton needed two overtimes to get to the second weekend of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. 

Friday night, two teams that haven’t made a Final Four in program history, will look to advance to the Elite Eight on Sunday. Creighton is paced by a three-point-heavy offense that’s elite defense is centered around big man Ryan Kalkbrenner. However, the defense falls short of Tennessee’s elite unit that has star Dalton Knecht bending defenses. 

This is set up for another fantastic matchup, but who should we bet? 

Here’s my full betting preview. 

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Creighton vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread and Total

Tennessee vs. Creighton Betting Trends

  • Creighton is 1-2 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog this season
  • Tennessee has gone UNDER in seven of the last 10 games
  • Tennessee is 17-17 ATS this season
  • Creighton is 18-15-1 ATS this season 

Creighton vs. Tennessee How to Watch

  • Date: Friday, March 29th
  • Game Time: 10:09 PM EST
  • Venue: Little Caesars Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): TBS/tru TV
  • Creighton Record: 25-9
  • Tennessee Record: 26-8

Creighton vs. Tennessee Key Players to Watch

Creighton

Ryan Kalkbrenner: Kalkbrenner is arguably the best rim protector in the sport, the entire Bluejays defense revolves around funneling opponents into the 7’1” senior’s orbit. He blocks about three shots per game and Creighton is top 10 in the country in terms of opponent three-point rate. The team forces teams to settle for floaters over Kalkbrenner and the team does a fine job rebounding around him. The Bluejays big man is a capable offensive player as well, averaging 17 points while showcasing the capability to shoot the three-point shot. 

Tennessee

Dalton Knecht: Likely the runner-up to win the Wooden Award this season, Knecht has dazzled after transferring from Northern Colorado. Knecht is averaging over 21 points per game and nearly five rebounds per game while posting a near-40% three-point percentage. 

Creighton vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

There are several matchup edges for Tennessee in this one, namely in its way to pressure the ball handler against Creighton, who remains limited in that department. Steven Ashworth will struggle to run the offense with All-SEC defender Zakai Zeigler draped on him and the likes of Jonas Aidoo protecting the rim. 

The Vols' defense is third in the country due to its ability to clean the glass, pressure the ball, and contest shots. While the team will let Creighton hoist from the defense as it pleases, the team is destined to lose the shot volume battle against the rugged SEC defense. 

It’s worth noting that Creighton loves to push the pace and beat the defense down the floor, and Tennessee has struggled in transition defense, rating 12th percentile in that category. This game could become a battle of who can dictate the pace. 

On the other side, Greg McDermott’s bunch grades out dead last in turnover rate, a concerning trend against a Vols team that is top 70 nationally in offensive rebounding rate and offset a 12% three-point shooting game against Texas with 10 more field goal attempts. 

Further, Zeigler and Knecht may be able to unpack the Creighton defense with its pick-and-roll game. The Bluejays grade out in the 12th percentile in terms of defending pick-and-rolls in terms of points per possession, a concern against the Vols offense that is 85th percentile in that regard but doesn’t run it very much (8% of offensive possessions). Can this be the wrinkle that Rick Barnes uses to pull Kalkbrenner away from the rim?

There is a case to be made for both sides, two elite units, but I believe Tennessee can be relied upon more game-to-game and will have the best player on the floor in Knecht. Further, I believe that the team's ability to score from all three levels at a well-distributed rate is going to be the key against a Creighton team that lives and dies with the three-point shot. 

I’ll take the Vols to advance to the Elite Eight. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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