Creighton vs. Villanova Prediction and Odds For Big East Conference Tournament Championship (Bluejays With Value)

The 22-10 #4 Creighton Bluejays hope to complete a wild Big East Tournament as they take on the 25-7 #2 Villanova Wildcats in the championship round today at 6:30 PM EST.

Creighton was +1800 to win the tournament coming in and pulled off a pair of double-digit upset victories over Marquette and Providence to make the finals while Villanova beat St. John's and Connecticut by a combined four points to get here.

These teams split the regular season series with Creighton winning by 20 in December and Villanova by 34 in January, but we're months away from those contests and these are different teams now. The Bluejays have won nine of 11 after enduring a mid-season slump and the Wildcats have stayed hot to win 17 of 20.

Does value lie with Creighton to complete the miracle or will Villanova earn a convincing win?

Let's check out the odds via WynnBET to find a wager in this Big East Conference Tournament Championship matchup:

Creighton vs Villanova Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Creighton +6.5 (-110)
• Villanova -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Creighton: +230
• Villanova: -290

Total:

• 128 (Over -110/Under -110)

Creighton vs Villanova Prediction and Pick

Despite a dominant overall record, the Wildcats have been middling against the spread (ATS) lately. They're 6-6-2 ATS over their last 14 games and 5-8-1 in their last 14 as a favorite. Creighton, on the other hand, is 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 and have won outright five of their last six as an underdog.

I think they have a good chance to keep today's game close as well. The Bluejays have been fantastic defensively, ranking in the 81st percentile in defensive rating and 99th in defensive rebounding over their last five matchups. Villanova is in just the 19th percentile defensively in that same time span and have really struggled inside offensively, ranking in the 2nd percentile in field goal percentage in the paint.

Those struggles should continue against a Creighton squad that has the 9th-best two-point shot defense in America and the 4th-lowest defensive free throw rate on the year. Villanova has to make outside shots to win and that's their specialty, but the Bluejays have held opponents to 32% from beyond the arc and should be able to make Wildcats' shooters uncomfortable.

I think this line is too big. It's possible that Villanova shoots Creighton out of the gym like they did in January but it's far more likely based on their recent performance that the Bluejays can hang around.

Give me Creighton to keep it close and cover as an underdog for the sixth time in seven tries.

Pick: Creighton +6.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.