Cubs vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Odds for Monday, August 29 (Don't Trust Starters on Monday)
By Peter Dewey
The Toronto Blue Jays have failed to take advantage of a rough August by the New York Yankees, as they still are nine games out in the AL East and have lost three straight heading into Monday’s matchup with the Chicago Cubs.
Toronto is now 1.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the division, and it desperately needs to take care of business against a beatable Cubs team.
José Berríos (9-5, 5.28 ERA) gets the ball for Toronto in this game against Chicago’s Javier Assad (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who is making his second start of his Major League career.
Here are the odds for this matchup from WynnBET:
Cubs vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total
Cubs vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Berríos has pitched well in his last two starts, but I’m not sold on him making a complete turnaround here. He still has a 7.08 ERA in August, and opponents are hitting .309/.374/.543 against him.
The crazy part is, he may have the advantage over Assad, who was shaky despite not allowing a run in his first career start. The rookie allowed four hits and four walks in that game, but the Cubs escaped with a 2-0 win. Assad’s Fielding Independent Pitching for his first start was rather high at 4.63.
So how do we bet a game where we don’t trust either starter? Easy, root for runs and take the OVER.
Chicago ranks 23rd in bullpen ERA this season, and it traded two of its best bullpen arms, David Robertson and Scott Effross, at the deadline this season. The Jays clock in at 14th in bullpen ERA in 2022.
If one of these pitchers delivers a clunker, we’re going to be well on our way to an OVER. Berríos has seven starts where he’s allowed at least five runs this season, and his ERA is a testament to his season-long struggles.
With the Jays’ high-powered offense and Berríos' inconsistency, it’s a perfect storm for an OVER.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.