Kevin Gausman is having a strange season plagued by bouts of inconsistency. Take his last six starts, for example, in which he allowed zero earned runs three times, four runs once, and five runs twice.
Regardless, he leads all qualified pitchers with a 2.01 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). The Toronto Blue Jays hope to get "Good Gausman" in a critical matchup with the Chicago Cubs today, as the Blue Jays are perilously hanging on to the final AL Wild Card spot.
Chicago turns to Marcus Stroman, who brings a spectacular 2.08 road ERA into the contest. He's struggling with command this month though, and Toronto is showing improved patience at the plate in recent weeks.
Let's take a look at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to see where the value lies in this Cubs vs Blue Jays matchup:
Cubs vs Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total
Cubs vs Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
It's strange, but Kevin Gausman can't buy a break in Toronto. The Blue Jays lost each of Gausman's last four home starts, and he's got a 4.63 ERA at the Rogers Centre this season. I believe those results are more due to poor luck than anything, and I like this matchup as a bounce-back spot for the 31-year-old righty.
A .374 batting average on balls in play is an insane mark, and Gausman's luck has to turn around sooner than later.
I don't feel comfortable backing the Blue Jays as large home favorites though. Entering yesterday's contest, Toronto was just 1-6 in its last seven in this spot thanks to a lineup that ranks 29th in OPS at home in August.
Marcus Stroman is pretty darn comfortable pitching at the Rogers Centre, and will make his first start back against the club that brought him into the league. In Stroman's last four road starts, he's compiled an expected FIP below 2.95 three times. He'll be juiced up to face his former team, and I think we see a dazzling performance.
Because I trust both pitchers, I'm backing the under. It's 10-3-1 in Chicago's last 14 games as road underdogs and 10-4 in Toronto's last 14 as home favorites. Expect those trends to continue as we're treated to a tidy pitcher's duel.
Pick: Under 8 (+100)
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