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Cubs vs. Braves Prediction and Odds for Thursday, April 28 (Take the Under in Ronald Acuña's Return)

By Ben Heisler

Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. returns to the Braves after missing the second half of last season recovering from a torn ACL.
Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. returns to the Braves after missing the second half of last season recovering from a torn ACL. / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
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The Atlanta Braves get a massive shot in the arm today when Ronald Acuña returns to the lineup from his torn ACL a season ago.

From the early swings, it doesn't look like he's missed a beat.

Acuña and the Braves send Kyle Wright to the mound as he looks to continue his brilliance in 2022 against Cubs left-hander Drew Smyly.

It's the rubber game in tonight's finale with each team grabbing a win on the run line in the first two games of the series.

Let's dive into today's odds for the series finale at WynnBET.

Cubs vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Cubs: +1.5 (-125)
  • Braves: -1.5 (+105)

Moneyline:

  • Cubs: +175
  • Braves: -190

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over: +105/Under: -125)

Cubs vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Sometimes, stats that represent themselves reasonably well over the course of 162 games have the exact opposite effect early on.

For example, the Cubs have 91 total runs scored this year and have given up just 71 for a run differential of +20. Their expected W/L record is actually 11-7, yet find themselves 8-10 on the season.

While that would likely lead most to believe that Chicago finds themselves undervalued on the road, the reality is without a 21-0 shutout last Saturday at Wrigley Field vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago would actually be -1, and much closer to where they currently stand.

As to why I like the pitching matchup quite a bit, Kyle Wright of the Braves has made a full-on jump in 2022. He sports a 26/2 strikeout-to-walk ratio so far this year. Via MLB Statcast, he actually grades out to be the second-most dominant pitcher in the Majors this year.

As for Cubs left-hander Drew Smyly, his peripherals suggest a rough outing could be coming soon, but for now, he's done well limiting damage with a 2.45 ERA and a WHIP of 1.02, despite a fielder independent pitching (FIP) number at 9.53!

Even if the Braves tattoo Smyly, I don't see the Cubs' bats faring well vs. a dominant Wright, who's seen his NL Cy Young numbers catapult up to 25/1 at WynnBET.

LEAN: UNDER 8.5 (-125)

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