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Cubs vs. Braves Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Tuesday, May 14

The Cubs are off to a hot start, but they dropped game one of this midweek series against the perennial juggernaut Atlanta Braves- let's talk about whether they can bounce back in the next matchup

By William Schwartz

Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates / Justin Berl/GettyImages
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We're starting to get to the point of the season where hot starts begin to fade out and we see which teams have some staying power.

The Chicago Cubs came into the year with high expectations after showing some positive flashes in 2023, but nobody really knew how consistent they might be. So far, it's been a strong showing, but the first game of their current series against an excellent Atlanta Braves team yielded a 2-0 loss.

Of course, few pundits are wondering if the Braves' solid start is for real, but like the Cubs, they're playing catch-up in their own division.

A series win or sweep against the Cubs would be a nice step in the right direction, and Tuesday's game will provide an interesting challenge for both sides- let's talk about what to watch as these two contenders face off.

Cubs vs. Braves odds and total

Run Line

  • Cubs +1.5 (-135)
  • Braves -1.5 (+114)

Moneyline

  • Cubs: +164
  • Braves: -198

Total

  • 8 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cubs vs. Braves Betting Trends

  • Atlanta is the best home team in the MLB with a 14-4 record
  • Chicago has a record of 13-4 after a loss
  • The under hits 61.1% of the time when the Braves are at home

Cubs vs. Braves: How To Watch

Date: Tuesday, May 14
Game Time: 7:20 PM
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
How To Watch (TV, Streaming): Bally Sports South, Fubo, MLB.TV
Cubs Record: 24-18
Braves Record: 25-13

Cubs vs. Braves Key Players To Watch

Cubs

Jameson Taillon: There's nothing particularly groundbreaking about saying that the starting pitcher could be a key to the game, but the start to the season that Taillon has had is seriously raising some eyebrows. Yes, he's just four starts into the year, but with an ERA of 1.13 and a WHIP of 0.88, he's annihialting the figures of 4.84 and 1.28 he put up last year in his first campaign as a Cub. His work hasn't all come against the league's elite, but he did recently shut down a top-tier Brewers team. The underlying statistics don't suggest that he's gotten lucky, so let's see how he does against another elite lineup.

Braves

Marcell Ozuna: With Ronald Acuña Jr. slumping by his own oh-so-lofty standards, Ozuna has really carried the load for the Atlanta offense with a hot start to the season. Specifically, he's crushed right-handed pitching more than any other Brave with an OPS over 1.000. Just to put that into perspective, among qualifying bats, Orlando Arcia is second-highest on the team leaderboard for that split with a mark of .769. Even lefty slugger Matt Olson has struggled against righties, so Ozuna may have to have another big day against Taillon to keep his team on top.

Cubs vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams were hot starters, but have leveled off a bit in recent weeks as the Braves are in a 6-4 stretch, and the Cubs are 5-5 in their last 10 games. However, by all accounts, they're both still serious ball clubs, and both are throwing solid arms, in the midst of resurgent starts to the season, so we should be in for a good ballgame this Tuesday night.

One of those pitchers is Chris Sale, who hasn't thrown 20 or more games with an ERA below 4.00 in any season since 2018, when he dominated for the World Series champion Red Sox.

Ever since he tossed the last out of that campaign, things haven't quite been the same, but after finally leaving Boston in the wake of several injury-plagued seasons, he's off to a really nice start to this year with an ERA of 2.95 through seven starts.

The other is Taillon, who struggled mightily in his first year at Wrigley but suddenly seems to have taken a big step up after an injury-necessitated delayed start to the year. It's not just his ERA and WHIP that have improved- the advanced metrics like chase rate, exit velocity, and barrel rate all suggest that the improvement is real. It's just hard to know how long he'll be able to keep it up, but his hot hand is not all that likely to go cold against this Atlanta team that, as good as they are, has struggled to hit righties.

Conversely, some of Chicago's most key bats have crushed lefties like Sale. Patrick Wisdom has only been back for a few games but has racked up an OPS of 1.511 against Southpaws, Christopher Morel's generally strong start has been fueled by dominance against left-handers with an OPS of 1.012, and even lefties like Cody Bellinger and Mike Tauchman are up over .900.

Just in general, betting on a team that has been as solid as Chicago right after they've been shut out is probably a solid idea. They're not likely to throw up a goose egg on consecutive nights, and the opportunity for this lineup to bounce back against a lefty is just too good to pass up.

The Cubs are far from a lock in this one- who really is one when going on the road to Atlanta- but the odds are not reflective of just how close this game should really be. The 1.5-run spread could be a slightly safer way to approach this one, but this is a good opportunity to go for all of the marbles and hit the Cubs' enticing moneyline.

Pick: Cubs ML (+164)

Note: Game odds are subject to change.

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