Betsided

Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction and Odds for Friday, August 26 (Steele's Ascension Gives Cubs Early Edge)

By Joe Summers

Justin Steele has a 0.86 ERA since the All-Star break for the Cubs
Justin Steele has a 0.86 ERA since the All-Star break for the Cubs / Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

The Milwaukee Brewers are in a tight battle in the NL Wild Card race, sitting 1.5-games back of a playoff spot after falling six games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. They've got a tough matchup against Justin Steele and the Chicago Cubs today, needing Freddy Peralta's best effort to keep pace.

Peralta has a 3.38 ERA in four starts since returning from injury, though he's walked seven batters in his last two outings.

Steele is on an absurd heater, compiling a 0.79 August ERA while allowing zero earned runs in four of his last five starts.

Can Steele give Chicago an upset victory or will Peralta settle his command to pick up the victory?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help analyze this Cubs vs Brewers matchup:

Cubs vs Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Cubs vs Brewers Prediction and Pick

"Hey Siri, show me MLB's most dominant left-handed pitcher over the last two months."

Justin Steele spent the first few months of the year as an analytics darling, showcasing incredible underlying metrics while his box score statistics remained average. Well, his box score caught up with his metrics, and now Steele is among MLB's best starters.

You know from that skip, hop, and strut that Steele is feeling it. That celebration move looks like me in college after sinking the last cup in beer pong. He's on top of the world, and just held these Brewers to two hits over six shutout innings last week. Just look at Steele's expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) from his last five starts:

  • 8/21 vs MIL: 1.60
  • 8/16 @ WSN: 3.43
  • 8/10 vs WSN: 0.86
  • 8/05 vs MIA: 0.74
  • 7/28 @ SFG: 2.68

That's otherworldly stuff, and the Brewers rank just 24th in OPS against lefties over the last three weeks. Freddy Peralta has an expected FIP above 3.86 in each of his last four outings, including two over 5.12, so he's at a large disadvantage against Steele.

Chicago's bullpen worries me, as we saw when it blew Steele's lead last week, but I love the value on the Cubs in the first five innings. Getting Steele at +125 against a team that struggles with southpaws? Sign me all the way up. It's not every day you get to back one of MLB's best starters at plus odds, after all.

Pick: Cubs First Five Innings (+125)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

Home/MLB Picks