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Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, July 5 (Regression Monster Looming)

By Joe Summers

Jason Alexander has been solid for Milwaukee, but his 6.01 expected ERA implies negative regression is coming
Jason Alexander has been solid for Milwaukee, but his 6.01 expected ERA implies negative regression is coming / Patrick McDermott/GettyImages
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The 47-35 Milwaukee Brewers have won seven of nine as they host the 32-48 Chicago Cubs tonight at 8:10 PM EST.

Jason Alexander hopes to keep Milwaukee rolling in his fifth start of the season. He's 2-0 with a 3.82 ERA, but his advanced metrics aren't pretty.

Chicago sends Kyle Hendricks to the hill after a pair of strong starts in which he allowed just two runs total over 13.1 innings. This is his third start against the Brewers and he's pitched well against them, allowing four runs across the first two outings.

Can the Cubs give Alexander his first loss of the season or will Milwaukee notch a third straight win?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help us find the value in this Cubs vs Brewers matchup:

Cubs vs Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Cubs +1.5 (-185)
  • Brewers -1.5 (+152)

Moneyline:

  • Cubs: +111
  • Brewers: -121

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Cubs vs Brewers Prediction and Pick

Jason Alexander might be the league's luckiest pitcher. Seriously, his numbers are like asking for a hit when you have 19 in blackjack and the dealer turning over a 2. He's got a 3.82 ERA, but his 6.01 expected ERA is among the worst marks in MLB.

Chicago's lineup is inconsistent, but does rank ninth in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks. I think they'll find success against Alexander, though the Brewers should find success against Kyle Hendricks as well.

Milwaukee leads the league in OPS over the last few weeks and this will be the third time they've seen Hendricks, whose 5.06 expected ERA illustrates how much he's struggled this year. Take one look at his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile and you'll know he can't be trusted:

Both bullpens are nothing to write home about and each defense is terrible, so we should be in for a lot of runs tonight. The over is 8-2-1 in Milwaukee's last 11 games. With two lackluster pitchers taking on two hot lineups, that trend should improve.

Expect a high-scoring contest as regression hits Alexander and the Brewers finally put some runs on the board against a fading Hendricks.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-115)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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