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Cubs vs. Giants Prediction and Odds for Sunday, July 31 (Rodon Gives Under Value)

By Joe Summers

Carlos Rodon has yet to allow more than two runs in a single home start this year
Carlos Rodon has yet to allow more than two runs in a single home start this year / Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
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Carlos Rodon looks to get right against the Cubs today after two consecutive poor outings. He surrendered five runs each to the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, bringing his July ERA up to 4.80.

That being said, the Giants' ace has a 2.05 ERA at AT&T Park and the Giants are 6-1 in their last seven as home favorites.

Adrian Sampson aims to stop the Giants' home success and give Chicago a split in the four-game series. Sampson has a 3.12 ERA over his last four starts and the Cubs won four of his last five outings.

Who has the edge in this series finale on Sunday Night Baseball? Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help analyze this Cubs vs Giants matchup:

Cubs vs Giants Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Cubs +1.5 (-135)
  • Giants -1.5 (+112)

Moneyline:

  • Cubs: +164
  • Giants: -179

Total:

  • 7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Cubs vs Giants Prediction and Pick

These are two clubs moving in opposite directions, with Chicago winning seven of 10 and the Giants posting a pathetic 2-8 record in that stretch. The culprit for San Francisco's woes, as it has been all season, is their poor defense and lineup.

Yesterday was the first game the Giants scored more than four runs in 10 days, and things won't get easier against Adrian Sampson today. Sampson has a 2.38 road ERA and displays tremendous control while avoiding hard contact. For a San Francisco lineup that ranks 28th in OPS against right-handed pitchers this month, that could spell trouble.

But I think Chicago will struggle too against Rodon, who still has elite swing-and-miss stuff despite his recent struggles. Rodon surrendered two or fewer earned runs in every single home start this season, so I've got a ton of faith in his ability to get it done in front of his own crowd.

Because I believe in both pitchers but don't feel optimism around the lineups, I'm going with the under tonight. It's hit in four straight starts by Sampson and is 3-0-2 in Rodon's last five at home. It's a low total, but feel comfortable going under in this matchup.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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