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Cubs vs. Orioles Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, June 7 (Cubs With Advantage At Every Level)

By Joe Summers

Keegan Thompson has impressed since becoming a starter as the Cubs take on the Orioles tonight
Keegan Thompson has impressed since becoming a starter as the Cubs take on the Orioles tonight / Nuccio DiNuzzo/GettyImages
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After both clubs had a day off yesterday to get some rest, the 23-33 Baltimore Orioles host the 23-32 Chicago Cubs in the opener of a quick two-game series tonight at 7:05 PM EST.

Keegan Thompson will make his fifth start after transitioning from the bullpen. His first four have gone swimmingly, as he's amassed a 2.85 ERA in that stretch. In total, he has a 6-0 record and 1.99 ERA on the season.

Baltimore will counter with Kyle Bradish, who held the Mariners to two runs in his last start but labored through a disastrous May, compiling an 8.46 ERA in five starts.

Can Bradish build off his performance against Seattle or will Thompson stay hot to give Chicago a road win?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help find out ahead of this Cubs or Orioles matchup:

Cubs vs Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Cubs -1.5 (+155)
  • Orioles +1.5 (-190)

Moneyline:

  • Cubs: -102
  • Orioles: -108

Total:

  • 9.0 (Over -110/Under -110)

Cubs vs Orioles Prediction and Pick

As it stands, this could be just the third time Baltimore has been favored all season. They'll either wind up as favorites or short underdogs, but I think that's a mistake by the sportsbooks. Keegan Thompson is a much, much better pitcher than Kyle Bradish and Chicago should be a larger favorite.

Let's do a quick comparison. Thompson prevents hard contact at an elite level and his expected ERA (3.22) would put him in the top 25 of all qualified pitchers. He's got four straight wins and an encourage MLB Statcast pitching profile:

He's maintained his velocity through the latter innings of his starts, and Thompson looks like he could be a key cog in the Cubs rotation for the foreseeable future.

Okay, now Bradish. The 25-year-old rookie has flashed potential, but the Orioles are experiencing growing pains while he harnesses his ability. Bradish's expected ERA (5.58) is worse than all but four qualified pitchers. His MLB Statcast pitching profile isn't quite as encourage as Thompson's:

Yuck. Chicago has an advantage at the plate too, ranking fifth in MLB in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks, while the Orioles are 24th.

Neither squad is impressive defensively, but the Cubs are closer to average in the field and Baltimore has the third-fewest Outs Above Average in the American League.

Pitching? One point to Chicago. Offense? Hey, a point to Chicago. Defense? That's another point to Chicago.

The Cubs are the better ballclub and have advantages at every level of the field. I'll back them on the run line at +160 as Thompson continues his breakout and Bradish flounders against a hot Chicago lineup.

Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+160)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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