Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, April 12 (Back Chicago to Win Big)

The Chicago Cubs hit the road for their second series of 2022 to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have already surprised me this season by winning Game 3 of their opening tilt against the Cardinals 9-4. Game 4 of that series was postponed due to inclement weather. I am not only surprised that the Pirates scored nine runs, but that they actually won a game against a tough Cardinals team at all.

They are expected to be the worst team in the Majors by many and I, for one, am a believer in their inadequacy as a squad. 

The Cubs took two of three from the Milwaukee Brewers to open the year including a 9-0 shutout on Saturday. They dropped Game 3 on Sunday and will be primed for a bounce-back against the worst the MLB has to offer. The Cubs are also 3-0 against the run line while the Cubs are just 1-2. Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

• Cubs -1.5 (+145)
• Pirates +1.5 (-175)

Moneyline:

• Cubs -112
• Pirates +102

Total:

• 9 (Over -110/Under -110)

Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Despite their losing record and my massive doubts about their ability to compete, the Pirates actually are the fourth-best team in terms of batting average to start the year. Pittsburgh, as a team, is hitting .283 in their first three games. It’s a small sample size, but a big improvement from their .237 mark in 2021. There is a pretty big problem, however, even with the strong batting average. The Pirates continue to struggle plating runs. They are fourth in BA but 21st in runs scored with 11 on the year. They also rank 28th in home runs with just one. While I think their batting average stats will normalize, these scoring stats are exactly what I expected from the Pirates. 

Former Cubs lefty Jose Quintana gets the start for Pitt in their home opener. In three starts during Spring Training, Quintana allowed 15 hits, 11 earned runs and four home runs. Opposing hitters teed off on the veteran; hitting .395 against him.

Drew Smyly, the Cubs starter, did not have a smooth spring either; finishing with a 6.14 ERA in 7 ⅓ innings of work. He coughed up 12 hits and five earned runs while striking out eight. 

I will continue my season-long fade of the Pirates despite Smyly’s issues. He had a decent 2021 and I don’t take Spring Training stats too unless they are extremely good or bad. Smyly was just a regular bad this Spring and am willing to trust him to get it done on Tuesday.

Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+145)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE