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Cubs vs. Reds Prediction and Odds for Monday, May 23 (Chicago's Offense to Cruise in Cincinnati)

By Ben Heisler

Chicago Cubs third baseman Patrick Wisdom high fives teammate Frank Schwindel after hitting back-to-back home runs in two straight games.
Chicago Cubs third baseman Patrick Wisdom high fives teammate Frank Schwindel after hitting back-to-back home runs in two straight games. / Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
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The Cincinnati Reds are chugging along!

Their 12 wins are the lowest in the Major Leagues this year, but six of them have come in their last 10 games. They started of 3-18 in April, but have slowly started to turn the ship around; going 9-10 in May.

Tonight, they host the Chicago Cubs, who after a solid start to the season, now only sit four games ahead of the Reds in the NL Central standings.

Here are tonight's odds from the Queen City courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Cubs -1.5 (+135)
  • Reds +1.5 (-165)

Moneyline:

  • Cubs -115
  • Reds +105

Total:

  • 9 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Cubs vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

The Reds are playing like a different team this month, but that's still not enough for me to consider betting them on the moneyline.

They roll out right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez who is still in search of his first win this season. While win-loss record means all but nothing in today's game, taking a look at his overall numbers tells the story of why he's 0-for on the season. In six starts, Gutierrez has an ERA of 8.65 through 26 innings pitched. He's averaging 4.1 IP per start, striking out only 6.5 batters per nine innings, and allowing a home-run-rate of over two per nine this year. Cubs hitters Patrick Wisdom and Frank Schwindel have hit back-to-back home runs in their last two games. Perhaps a third is in play tonight?

As for Chicago, left-hander Drew Smyly is just 1-5 this year, but the Cubs have let him down when it comes to run support. Through seven starts, Chicago has scored a total of 16 runs for Smyly, averaging 2.28 runs/game. The 32-year old lefty has a 3.97 ERA, as well as an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.00, so he's been right in line with what his peripherals suggest he should be; just without the support of Chicago's offense.

The Reds have been the better team in May, but Smyly is the far better pitcher and Chicago should capitalize against one of the worst pitchers in baseball. I'll back the Cubs to get the job done on the moneyline tonight.

LEAN: Cubs -115

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