Cubs vs. Reds Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, May 24 (Reds Offense Too Powerful at Home)
By Joe Summers
The Cincinnati Reds host the Chicago Cubs tonight at 6:40 PM EST in the second game of a four-game set.
Chicago has been streaky, following up a four-game winning streak by promptly dropping four straight, and they're trying to find some consistency to build from for the rest of the season.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, is finally out of a historically bad slump and were a respectable 9-6 in their last 15 games prior to this series. For just the seventh time all year, the Reds find themselves as favorites. Woohoo, time to rejoice!
Tyler Mahle is the guest of honor for this joyous Cincy occasion and has been pitching really well lately. In his last three starts, Mahle has a 2.63 ERA while striking out 18 in 17.1 innings. He's only allowed eight hits in that span, and his career-low 3.35 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) implies his performance is no fluke.
Cubs' starter Marcus Stroman has improved in recent weeks as well. His first few starts of 2022 were a disaster, but he has a flat 2.00 ERA in his last three outings and has displayed tremendous control, walking just one batter in that stretch;
Which improving pitcher has the edge? Can Mahle secure the Reds a home victory as favorites or will Stroman and Chicago spoil the party? Perhaps the total has value we should take advantage of instead of a side?
Let's bring in our friends from WynnBET Sportsbook and check out the odds to answer those questions ahead of this Cubs vs Reds matchup:
Cubs vs Reds Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Cubs +1.5 (-200)
- Reds -1.5 (+165)
Moneyline:
- Cubs: -103
- Reds: -107
Total:
- Total 8.0 (Over -115/Under -105)
Cubs vs Reds Prediction and Pick
What I didn't mention about the Reds being favorites for just the seventh time this season is that they're 1-5 in those six previous matchups. But there's ample reason to believe they'll notch a second victory behind Mahle today.
Let's start with the offense. I promise I'm not lying to you (seriously, look it up), but the Reds lead the league in OPS at home this month. No, really. Their lineup has turned a corner and they were averaging over eight runs per game at the Great American Ball Park this month entering the series.
The same can't be said for the Cubs, who rank 26th in OPS against right-handed pitchers this month and are 5-10 in their last 15 as an underdog. And while Mahle's recent performance is supported by the advanced metrics he's produced all season, Marcus Stroman still ranks in the fifth percentile in hard hit percentage and ninth in average exit velocity.
Chicago's offense has improved in recent weeks, but I don't think they'll be able to keep pace with Cincinnati's transformation. The Reds are just 12-28 on the season, but they're the better team and have an advantage both on the mound and in the batter's box.
Go ahead, pop the champagne! Cincinnati will win their second game as a favorite behind Mahle's continued strong play and a lineup that can't be stopped at home.
Pick: Reds (-107)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.