Daily Dinger: Best Home Run Picks for Thursday, June 16 (Why Would Anyone Fade Manny Machado and Padres Right Now?)
At first you don't succeed, you bet and bet again, right?
On Tuesday, BetSided's Peter Dewey took Padres third baseman Manny Machado to go deep vs. the Cubs. He didn't get there despite the Padres putting up 12 runs. Yesterday, our Reed Wallach got on board the Machado train and sure enough, he (along with several others) went deep for the Friars as they put up 19 runs at Wrigley Field vs. the Cubs.
For Thursday's slate, we're targeting a pair of power right-handers in the early afternoon games, while also focusing on another right-hander that's known for crushing left-handed pitching throughout his career.
Today's odds are listed via WynnBET Sportsbook, as well as from consensus lines. WynnBET props are mentioned specifically if available below.
Remember, you can always follow along with our daily standings in the BetSided "Daily Dinger" game HERE.
Best Home Run Picks Today
- Matt Davidson (+420)
- Manny Machado (+205) - available at WynnBET
- Eduardo Escobar (+560)
Matt Davidson (+420) - Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox
I'm playing the numbers as well as the weather for today's matinee at Fenway Park in Boston between the A's and Red Sox.
Davidson is in the lineup to destroy left-handers. He has a .440 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against southpaws with a .600 isolated power (ISO) this season and a wRC+ of 190.
He faces 42 year old Rich Hill today in ideal hitting conditions with the wind blowing out 15-17 mph straight out to left field. Hill is allowing 1.28 HR/9 this season, while also putting up some of the lower strikeout numbers of his career.
The A's lineup may be a mess overall, but the splits say to back Davidson here. -- Ben Heisler
Manny Machado (+205) - San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
Machado finally hit a home run in this series yesterday, getting on the board in a wide-open series. He has two things in his advantage today.
First, the wind is going to continue to blow at Wrigley today. Secondly, he’s going against Matt Swarmer, who’s given up nine home runs in three starts this year.
Swarmer is definitely going to feel the pressure to keep the ball in the park, but I don’t see him holding up. -- Donnavan Smoot
Eduardo Escobar (+560) - New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Eduardo EscobarIf you want to place a bet on a player to hit a home run, bet on Eduardo Escobar when he faces a left-handed pitcher.
His batting average this season jumps from .205 against righties, to .309 against lefties. His slugging jumps by an even bigger margin, improving from .311 to .603 when he faces left-handed pitchers.
Tonight, he and the Mets face-off against lefty Aaron Ashby, so it's time to take a shot on Escobar to go yard once again. -- Iain MacMillan