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Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Back THIS Long Shot to Go Deep on Saturday, June 1st)

By Reed Wallach

May 30, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; New York Yankees left fielder Alex Verdugo (24) in the dugout after scoring on a bases loaded walk in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
May 30, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; New York Yankees left fielder Alex Verdugo (24) in the dugout after scoring on a bases loaded walk in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
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As the calendar flips to June, Major League Baseball is heating up.

While Aaron Judge is hitting the cover off the baseball, its the rest of the Yankees lineup that intrigues me on Saturday as a threat to hit a home run, and I'm banking on it by backing Alex Verdugo to hit a homer.

Get my reasoning for why I'm betting on Verdugo as well as two other hitters on Saturday below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Home Runs Today, June 1st

  • Bo Bichette (+830)
  • Salvador Perez (+400)
  • Alex Verdugo (+1100)

Bo Bichette

Bichette has struggled this season, but still ranks in the top half of the big leagues in terms of hard hit percentage, but the results aren't checking out with only four home runs to his name this seaosn and a .245 batting average.

He has a plus matchup on Saturday afternoon against Mitch Keller of the Pirates, who is striking out more than five percent fewer batters relative to last season's career year and has an xERA of 4.65 (higher than his 3.59 ERA).

Keller is allowing a hard-hit percentage in the 17th percentile and is leaving plenty of offspeed pitches in the strike zone (17th percentile).

I believe this number has drifted too far on Bichette, I'll back him to go yard on Saturday.

Salvador Perez

Perez is one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball this season, posting .321/.385/.531 slahses with a 98th percentile xSLG of .596.

He already has 10 home runs to his name and is in the 81st percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage, and now faces Joe Musgrove of the Padres, who has zero movement on his pitchies this season.

The Padres starter is in the ninth percentile in terms of run value and hitters are teeing off on him, he ranks in the eighth percentile in terms of barrel percentage. Perez is aggressive at the plate and if Musgrove leaves one in the strike zone, the catcher is live to take him deep.

I love this set up for Perez, who has hit eight of his 10 homers against rigthy pitchers.

Alex Verdugo

After a home run on Friday night for Aaron Judge, I believe that we see the Giants pitch around him completely and avoid another long ball, making for more hittable pitches for Alex Verdugo, who typically hits behind Judge in the order.

The Yankees face Logan Webb, who is due some harsh regression moving forward, pitching far worse than his 2.74 ERA (4.65 xERA with a 52% hard-hit percentage).

Further, Verdugo has been a threat to go deep all season, cracking eight home runs with six of them coming against right handed pitching. At this big of a number, Verdugo is worth a stab to go deep.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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