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Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Elly De La Cruz Must Bet vs. Giants)

By Reed Wallach

May 7, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) at bat against
May 7, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) at bat against / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
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Let's get the weekend started with a big payout, right?

The most exciting prop bet in baseball is a home run bet, and I'm eyeing some of the bright young stars in Major League Baseball, including Elly De La Cruz, who is +1000 to go deep against the Giants. I'm also eyeing another MVP candidate in Bobby Witt Jr., who is an advantageous spot on Friday to go deep.

Here's our three favorite home run prop bets on Friday:

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets on Friday, May 10th

  • Tyler O'Neil (+390)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. (+320)
  • Elly De La Cruz (+1000)

Tyler O'Neil (+390)

O'Neil has been crushing the ball all season with nine home runs on the year, and now draws one of the worst big league pitchers in Patrick Corbin.

O'Neil is in the 97th percentile in barrel percentage as he continues to smash. While only two home runs come against left handed pitching, he is slugging far better against southpaws, .643 vs. .592 against righties.

With more reps against lefties, I expect more hard contact to come. Corbin has allowed hard-hit contact on 47% of balls in play (11th percentile) with an xSLG of .489. He is allowing a home run per nine innings and will get shelled by Boston.

With that in mind, I'll back the best slugger on the Red Sox to go deep.

Bobby Witt Jr. (+320)

The Royals face Griffin Canning of the Angels, who ha an ERA of 6.69 and is getting crushed by hitters, 14th in average exit velocity and 21st in barrel percentage.

Witt Jr. is smashing the ball this season, crushing five homers with a ton of hard contact (98th percentile average exit velocity). He has slashes of .318/.388/.556, so he should have plenty of success against Canning with the wind blowing out to centerfield at more than nine miles per hour.

Elly De La Cruz (+1000)

Giants' starter Logan Webb enters with a sterling reputation, but hasn't been the same in 2024. He is striking out a career low batters and has an xERA more than a run higher in the postseason (3.50 vs. 4.73).

De La Cruz is set to thrive on Friday, hitting seven of his eight home runs against righties with a slugging percentage of .605. De La Cruz is barreling nearly 15% of his balls in play (91st percentile) and is able to hit it out of all parts of the ballpark.

This number is way too high for one of the most powerful bats in baseball.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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