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Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Gunnar Henderson Set to Rake on Saturday)

By Reed Wallach

May 10, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) doubles to
May 10, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) doubles to / Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
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There are plenty of sluggers in line to go deep on Saturday, and we have all the information for you.

For the likes of Gunnar Henderson and William Contreras, each batter is in line to have a big day at the dish, can it turn into a home run? At the current odds, I'm advising to bet on each, which you can find out why below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB home Run Prop Bets for Saturday, May 11th

  • Gunnar Henderson (+390)
  • William Contreras (+520)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino (+540)

Gunnar Henderson (+390)

Henderson is putting up MVP-like numbers, and with the wind blowing out at nine miles per hour at Camden Yards on Saturday, I like him to keep building his case with a home run.

Henderson has seven home runs when facing righty pitchers, and Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson has been vulnerable to hard contact. He is in the 21st percentile in hard-hit percnetage and doesn't have a ton of movement on his pitches, striking out only 17% of batters, leaving plenty of pitches in the strike zone.

I like Henderson to tee off.

William Contreras (+520)

Contreras can hit home runs all over the park. He is in the 99th percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity while hitting .340 on the year. The catcher has plenty of power, but only five home runs this season. 

I think we see him take Cardinals’ starter Kyle Gibson yard on Saturday given some of the underlying metrics for the veteran. 

Gibson has a 3.68 ERA that is supported by a 5.43 xERA. He has benefitted from a ton of batted ball variance as he is only striking out of 18.5% of batters. 

However, batters have been able to smash against him, he ranks 25th percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage and 10th percentile in terms of barrel percentage. The key has been that Gibson is in the 73rd percentile in terms of ground ball percentage. 

Simply put, this number is too good to pass up on a hitter of Contreras caliber to knock around a soft tossing pitcher like Gibson and a terrible bullpen behind him.

Vinnie Pasquantino (+540)

I’m taking a chance here on the lefty slugger against a lefty starter in Tyler Anderson, but Pasquantino’s reverse splits give me optimism. 

The Royals’ first baseman has a higher slugging percentage against lefties than righties (.519 vs. .443) over a small sample size of only 27 at bats, including a home run.

While that might not translate, the price is too long on a hitter that will need to be pitched to in the middle of the Kansas City order and with an xSLG in the 92nd percentile as well as a 48.8% hard-hit percentage.

Anderson sticks to his off-speed stuff, but isn’t without flaws as he has allowed six home runs in seven starts. 

I’ll take a flier on Pasquantino, who can also hit one late against a porous Angels bullpen.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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