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Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Jake Cronenworth Set for Homer on Saturday vs. Braves)

By Reed Wallach

May 1, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres first baseman Jake Cronenworth (9) is
May 1, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres first baseman Jake Cronenworth (9) is / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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Every big league team is in action across Major League Baseball on Saturday, giving us plenty of options to cash in with a home run prop bet. 

While there are sluggers stepping in the batter’s box on Saturday, I’m focusing further down the board for specific situations that suit some players well like Jake Cronenworth of the Padres, who will face Braves’ starter Bryce Elder, who is due for some serious regression at the plate. 

Here’s my three favorite home run prop bets on Saturday’s baseball slate: 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets on Saturday, May 18th

  • Isaac Parades (+520)
  • Jake Cronenworth (+700)
  • Wilyer Abreu (+540)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Isaac Parades (+520)

Parades has been rock solid all season, hitting .303 with eight home runs, following up his 31 home run campaign in 2023. However, he continues to be priced in this range despite his clear power. 

Parades has a slugging percentage of .534 against right handed pitchers, hitting all eight home runs against them. Against Kevin Gausman, who has seen his pitches lack movement all season, 10th percentile in pitch run value with an xERA in the 10th percentile, I like Parades to catch one as the Rays offense continues to come to life. 

Jake Cronenworth (+700)

Cronenworth has been one of the most potent hitters in baseball this season. 

Hitting .275 with seven home runs, Cronenworth has been a dangerous threat in a talented Padres lineup, and he draws a favorable matchup on Saturday in the hitter friendly Truist Park against Bryce Elder, who is due for an uptick in ERA due to his underlying metrics. Elder has an ERA of 4.79 this season, but has an xERA of 5.24 with a 47% hard-hit rate allowed (ninth percentile). 

Cronenworth mashes against righties, posting .304/.369/.560 slashes with all seven home runs coming against right handers. The ball flies in Atlanta, and with Cronenworth ranking in the 83rd percentile in xSLG, this matchup suits him perfectly to go yard. 

Wilyer Abreu (+540)

The Red Sox rookie has thrived this season against right handed pitching, posting .282/.364/.505 slashes with all four of his home runs coming against righties. 

Abreu isn’t known for his power, but has a 49% hard-hit percentage and will face a soft tossing Miles Mikolas on Saturday, who is struggling to find any sort of movement on his breaking ball pitches (first percentile in breaking pitch run value). Further, Mikolas is in the second percentile in whiff percentage, batters are putting bat on ball. 

At price, I think Abreu is the way to go to fade Mikolas. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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