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Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Kyle Tucker Due to Break Out)

By Reed Wallach

Apr 3, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker (30) hits a single during
Apr 3, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker (30) hits a single during / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
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With a full MLB slate on Friday, let’s key in on few sluggers to go deep. 

Kyle Tucker is due for some good fortune as his underlying metrics show he should be hitting the ball far further and with more results. Can it come on Friday against the Rangers? I’m eyeing him in the home run prop bet market, as well as a pair of other NL West power hitters. 

Here’s my three favorite home run prop bets for April 12th. 

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Best Home Run Bets for April 12th

  • Kyle Tucker (+450)
  • Lourdes Gurriel (+600)
  • Teoscar Hernandez (+540)

Kyle Tucker (+450)

Tucker has been crushing the ball to start the season, but it’s not matching his numbers. The slugger is hitting only .241 with two home runs but has a hard-hit percentage in the 76th percentile and an xSLG in the 85th percentile. 

Good times should be coming for Tucker, and I think it starts against Dane Dunning of the Rangers, who has an xERA two runs higher than his ERA. 

Lourdes Gurriel (+600)

Gurriel destroys lefty pitching, going from a .275 hitter to a .291 hitter when facing southpaws. Further, he has a higher home run rate against left handed pitching as well and should face Steven Matz, who has allowed a ton of power with his breaking ball dependent pitching arsenal. Matz’s max exit velocity of 115.8 miles per hour is bottom 20 percentile in the big leagues this season. 

Teoscar Hernandez (+540)

Hernandez is thriving in the Dodgers loaded lineup, and he should get a chance to feast yet again on Friday night. 

He is hitting .298 with four home runs already with a 90th percentile hard-hit percentage and 87th average exit velocity. As pitchers navigate the likes of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman, Hernandez needs to be pitched to, and he has made them pay. 

I’ll take Hernandez to go deep on Friday. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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