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Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Mookie Betts MVP Push Continues with Tuesday Home Run)

By Reed Wallach

Apr 13, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts (50) runs
Apr 13, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts (50) runs / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
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Who wants to cash in on Tuesday with a long ball?

I'm eyeing leading National League MVP candidate Mookie Betts to go yard on Tuesday night as the Dodgers face the out-matched Marlins, highlighting our trio of sluggers to hit a home run.

Here's my three favorite home run prop bets for Tuesday's MLB card.

Best Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 7th

  • Bryan Reynolds (+520)
  • William Contreras (+550)
  • Mookie Betts (+460)

Bryan Reynolds (+520)

Reynolds is in a position to thrive on Tuesday, one of the most dangerous hitters against left-handed pitching in baseball.

He is hitting .364 with a .614 slugging percentage against lefty pitching this season with three home runs as well. He faces Patrick Sandoval on Tuesday, who is getting little run on his pitches (third in pitching run value), which means he can be vulnerable to getting crushed by a sweet-swinging righty like Reynolds.

The numbers scream home run on Tuesday.

Williams Contreras (+550)

The Brewers catcher has been mashing all season, posting slashes of .328/.406/.507 with five home runs on the year. Contreras ranks in the 98th percentile in hard-hit percentage so he could be in line for even more dingers as the season goes on.

Contreas faces a soft-tossing starter in Seth Lugo, who is striking out fewer than 18% of batters, but doesn't walk many batters, meaning he is giving hitters something to hit.

With the wind set to blow out of Kauffman Stadium at more than 11 miles per hour, and Contreas able to hit it out of the park in any direction, I like him to take Lugo deep at some point.

Mookie Betts (+460)

Betts is the front-runner to win NL MVP behind all-around excellence, including .356/.575/1.038 slashes.

He has six home runs this season behind a 92nd-percentile average exit velocity. Most of his power comes against righties (five of six) and he faces one in Edward Cabrera, who throws heat (35% strikeout rate), but also has been getting crushed by hard contact, 12th in barrel percentage.

There are too many sluggers in the Dodgers lineup that Betts is going to need to be pitched to, so I'll take a flier on him to go deep.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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