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Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Pete Alonso's Hot Start Continues)

By Reed Wallach

Apr 27, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) rounds the
Apr 27, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) rounds the / John Jones-USA TODAY Sports
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It’s Monday, and everyone is looking for a dinger to cash in on. 

There are some high-profile names in line for a home run on Monday like Pete Alonso, while also some underrated sluggers have advantageous matchups like Ryan Mountcastle and Lourdes Gurriel. 

Here are three home run props I’m eyeing on the Monday card.

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Best Home Run Prop Bets Today

  • Ryan Mountcastle (+600)
  • Pete Alonso (+340)
  • Lourdes Gurriel (+600)

Ryan Mountcastle (+600)

Mountcastle has been tearing the cover off the ball this season, hitting .319 on the year, but it hasn’t resulted in a ton of home runs just yet, hitting four on the year. 

The first baseman is in the 80th percentile in hard-hit rate and has shown an ability to crush it with hard contact, posting a max exit velocity of 112.6 miles per hour. 

All of Mountcastle’s home runs have been to left field this season, where the wind will be blowing out at more than 10 miles per hour during the game, helping take his hard contact over the fence. 

Pete Alonso (+340)

Alonso is one of the most dangerous sluggers in the bigs, he has eight home runs on the year already with five of them coming against right-handed pitching. 

He’ll face Jameson Taillon on Monday night, so this sets up favorably for Alonso who has .267/.344/.477 slashes against righties, as the veteran Cubs pitcher hasn’t been blazing it past batters this season. 

Taillon has a fastball velocity in the 27th percentile and isn’t generating many chases from batters, ranking in the 32nd percentile. He’ll have to throw pitches in the zone, and Alonso is in line to crack one. 

Lourdes Gurriel (+600)

Gurriel thrives against left-handed pitching, hitting .341 on the year, and will face James Paxton of the Dodgers, who has been erratic all year, walking 19% of batters already this season. 

Paxton has an ERA of 2.61 this season, but his xERA is 5.33 and he ranks in the eighth percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage. This can be a nightmare matchup for him against Gurriel. 

Gurriel has a hard-hit percentage in the 71st percentile with an xSLG in the 69th percentile, I love him to take one to left field, where all five of his home runs have gone. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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