Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Salvador Perez's Hot Start Continues vs. Rangers)
By Reed Wallach
Everybody is looking for a + money payout to start the weekend, so let's take it to the home run prop bet market!
While I'm not scouring for long shots, I believe some matchups suits suit some sluggers well, including Salvador Perez of the Royals, who has been dominant at the plate. Further, keep an eye on the weather in both Cincinnati and Los Angeles, helping Reds' catcher Tyler Stephenson and Braves DH Marcell Ozuna.
Here's three home run prop bets to target on Friday:
Best Home Run Prop Bets for Friday, May 3rd
- Tyler Stephenson (+425)
- Salvador Perez (+390)
- Marcell Ozuna (+330)
Tyler Stephenson (+425)
Stephenson is a lesser-known slugger than our other two picks for Friday, but his underlying metrics indicate that he is petrifying at-bat for opposing pitchers.
Stephenson is in the 97th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 100th percentile in barrel percentage!
He is only hitting .231, but his xSLG is far higher (.470 vs. .415), meaning there should be better results in due time. While he is only hitting .200 against left-handed pitching, his slugging percentage is a staggering .500. He faces a southpaw in Cole Irvin in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
This is an advantageous set up for the catcher on Friday, I'll take a shot on him to go deep.
Salvador Perez (+390)
Perez has been on fire in the heart of this loaded Royals lineup, hitting .355 with seven home runs, barrelling up 17% of balls in play, 96th percentile in the big leagues.
He faces Michael Lorenzen on Friday night, who draws the start for a middling Rangers pitching staff. He has an ERA of 4.24 with an xERA of 5.10, indicating he may be due for even worse results in the future. He allows an average amount of hard contact (51st percentile), and the wind blowing to left field will cause issues against the scorching Perez, who has hit all seven home runs to left.
Marcell Ozuna (+330)
Ozuna has been as dangerous as any hitter in the big leagues, and now gets to play at Dodger Stadium, where the winds are set to be blowing out at more than 10 miles per hour during the game.
Ozuna is hitting .321 with nine home runs on the year, 96th in hard-hit percentage. He has been mashing at an incredibly high level, and he should be in a good spot on Friday night against Gavin Stone of the Dodgers.
Stone's rookie season has been hit or miss, but he has really struggled to generate swings and misses with a fastball that lacks movement (21st in fastball run value), giving Ozuna plenty of opportunities to go yard in favorable conditions.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.