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Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Triston Casas Stays Hot vs. Mitch Keller)

By Reed Wallach

Apr 1, 2024; Oakland, California, USA; Boston Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas (36) hits a double
Apr 1, 2024; Oakland, California, USA; Boston Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas (36) hits a double / Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
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Let’s get the weekend started with some home run props, why don’t we? 

Everybody wants to hit a long shot and I’m backing three sluggers with greater than +600 odds, including the sweet swinging Triston Casas and two west coast bombers with favorable matchups in Lourdes Gurriel and Jake Cronenworth. 

Here are three long shot home run props for Saturday’s big league slate: 

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Best Home Run Picks for Saturday, April 20th

  • Triston Casas (+750)
  • Lourdes Gurriel (+630)
  • Jake Cronenworth (+680)

Triston Casas (+750)

Casas has showcased his pop at the dish of late, hitting four home runs in the last seven games, and I’ll back him once more against a struggling Mitch Keller who has been crushed by hard contact all season, allowing an expected slugging percentage of .419.

Casas generates most of his power against righties, but is far more inconsistent, hitting only .228 against right handed pitching but has hit four of his second homers against them, leading to the long odds. 

I’m going to stick with the overarching profile of Casas, who is becoming one of the most dangerous hitters in the American League from a power perspective.

Lourdes Gurriel (+630)

When the D-Backs face a lefty, look to Gurriel to hit a long ball. 

Gurriel hits lefties at a .483 slugging percentage over his career and already has two homers against southpaws this season. Hitting in a friendly Chase Field, expect Gurriel to send one over the left field fence with ease. 

Jake Cronenworth (+680)

Jose Berrios is a prime regression candidate, his xERA is about three runs higher than his actual ERA, which means I’m looking for Padres’ to back in the home run department. 

Jake Cronenworth stands out. The first baseman only has three bombs on the year, but his expected slugging percentage is far higher than his actual. He has a slugging percentage of .453 on the year, but his underlying metrics stand at .552. He has been able to put the barrel on the ball this year as well, posting a career high 14.8%. 

Against Berrios, a righty, expect Cronenworth to thrive, his slugging percentage is .430 against righties, better than the .380 mark against lefties. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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