Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Trust Fernando Tatis Jr. on Monday)

Let’s get the week started off with a home run prop bet!

There’s plenty of Major League Baseball action, and some prominent sluggers in line to go deep, including Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. 

Elsewhere, I’m targeting the likes of Ryan Mountcaslte and Rhys Hoskins to hit a home run on Monday night, make sure to check out the full analysis below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday, May 13th

• Ryan Mountcastle (+680)
• Rhys Hoskis (+440)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. (+430)

Ryan Mountcastle

Mountcastle has been making hard contact all season. He is ranking in the 80th percentile in xSLG behind a 46.8% hard-hit percentage and is in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity. 

The Orioles’ first baseman is slashing .280/.323/.497 with six home runs to his name, and I like him to hit a seventh on Monday against Jose Berrios. Mountcaslte has three homers against righties and Berrios, who is in the fifth percentile in hard-hit percentage, is likely going to leave pitches in the strike zone as he needs to be more mindful of Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. 

At a long number, I’ll take Mountcastle to tag Berrios. 

Rhys Hoskins

Hoskis is only hitting .227 on the year but has nine home runs this season behind a 93rd-percentile hard-hit percentage and 91st-percentile xSLG. 

He is crushing the ball when he makes contact, and the Monday night matchup suits him quite well against soft-tossing Mitch Keller, who has lost velocity after a career season in 2023. 

Keller is in the 23rd percentile in run value this season, getting little movement and its leading to a ton of hard contact, ranking in the 29th percentile in average exit velocity and 19th in hard-hit percentage. 

There are plenty of capable Brewers in the lineup, but I like Hoskis the best. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. 

Tatis is one of the premier hitters in the game, and most of his damage comes against right-handed pitching. 

The do-it-all slugger is slashing .282/.321/.504 this season with seven home runs already. He is making hard contact on more than half of the balls put in play and now faces Dakota Hudson on Monday night. 

Hudson has been poor all season, posting a 6.35 ERA with little movement on his pitches and a propensity to give up hard contact, seventh percentile in average exit velocity. 

However, he does allow 58% of balls in play to be ground balls, which can of course limit the ability for Tatis to go deep. With that being said, there are too many indicators for Tatis to get a hold of one and a long price against a poor pitching staff not to bet. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.