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Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Tyler O'Neil's Heater Continues)

By Reed Wallach

Apr 5, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Boston Red Sox outfielder Tyler O'Neill (17) hits a home run
Apr 5, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Boston Red Sox outfielder Tyler O'Neill (17) hits a home run / Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports
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Who wants a big payout on Sunday?

There are plenty of sluggers in advantageous situations on Sunday, including on Sunday Night Baseball when slugger Tyler O'Neil steps into the batter's box. O'Neil has nine home runs already on the season, but with the wind blowing out at Fenway Park, we may see another.

Here's our write up on why to bet O'Neil to go deep, as well as two others on Sunday's slate:

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Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today

  • Spencer Steer (+520)
  • Jake Cronenworth (+630)
  • Tyler O'Neil (+450)

Spencer Steer (+520)

Steer only has three home runs on the season, but has been swinging a good bat and is due for an uptick in power.

The Reds' left fielder has an xBA of .382 and has a hard-hit percentage in the 86th percentile. He has been on the wrong end of some bad batted ball variance, but this matchup in Arlington should suit him nicely in the hitter frienly GlobeLife Park.

Steer has a slugging percentgage of .444 against righties, up from .406 against lefties, and will face a soft tossing Dane Dunning on Sunday. The Rangers' starter has a hard hit percentage of nearly 53% and has an xERA that is at 7.04, far higher than its currenty 4.61.

Hitters have been crushing Dunning with hard contact all season, but he's skated by. I believe Steer can outperform this price tag and take him deep.

Jake Cronenworth (+630)

Cronenworth has been one of the most unlucky pitchers in baseball this season. He is hitting .255 with three home runs, but ranks in the 91st percentile in xBA, 89th in xSLG and 81st in barrell percentage. He is making great contact, but the results haven't matched yet.

I believe we see an uptick starting on Sunday when the Padres face Taijuan Walker, who is making his season debut after starting the year on the injured list.

With the wind blowing out at Petco Park, and Cronenworth set to face a right hander pitcher that he can take to right field (where all three of his home runs have gone), this is an advantageous set up at a big price tag.

Tyler O'Neil (+450)

There's arguably no better slugger in baseball this season than O'Niel, who is in the 100th percentile in barrel percentage and is in the 99th percentile in xSLG.

He is taking the cover off the baseball, and will look to keep it rolling on Sunday Night Baseball, where the conditions are expected to be stellar for hitters with the wind blowing out at 10 miles per hour.

The Cubs are set to start Hayden Wesneski on Sunday, who is set to make his first big league start of the year, but that means he could be on a short pitch count and this can become a bullpen game for Chicago. The team is bottom 10 in bullpen ERA this season and could be vulnerable to a big fly from the likes of O'Neil.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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