Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets for NCAA Tournament First Round (Live Underdogs Akron and Morehead St.?)

Finally, the debate of who should be in the NCAA Tournament and how to make your bracket is all over. It's time for the games.

Thursday's wall-to-wall coverage should bring plenty of intriguing action with the double-digit underdogs (or in some cases favorites) providing some resistance to their more notable counterparts. Teams such as No. 14 seed Morehead State and Akron may be up to the task of giving No. 3 seed Illinois and Creighton a run on Thursday afternoon.

Meanwhile, the nightcap between Drake and Washington State is being set as a coin flip, but I see some schematic advantages for the Missouri Valley Conference Champions to outlast its PAC-12 foe.

Here's three of my best bets for Thursday's NCAA Tournament first round action,

Find all my bets on my betstamp @rw33, my season long record is 184-172-7 (+6.30U)

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Best College Basketball Bets Today

• Akron (+12.5) vs. Creighton
• Morehead State (+11) vs. Illinois
• Drake (ML) vs. Washington State

Akron vs. Creighton Prediction and Pick

Creighton games are taking a ride on the variance rollercoaster, and I think there are enough concerns about this matchup to get on the massive underdog Zips.

First, let's go back to 2022 when Akron nearly knocked off UCLA as an 11 seed, losing 57-53 despite leading in the final minutes. Can head coach John Groce scheme up something similar in Pittsburgh on Thursday afternoon?

The Bluejays are ripe for an early exit due to their statistical profile. The team is dead last in the entire country in turnover percentage, so it can't play from behind all that much, and the team is seventh in three-point rate. If shots aren't falling from a distance, look out. Further, the team is 281st in offensive rebounding rate and 353rd in free throw rate.

A lot of what the Bluejays want to do comes down to if Greg McDermott's team is on from the perimeter. The team may be on from deep. To be fair, the team is 55th in the country in three-point percentage, but this matchup doesn't suit them very well.

Akron has plenty of talent on hand with big man Ali Ali and rangy wing Enrique Freeman and also has the antidote to out-duel Creigthon's defense, centered around funneling opponents off the three-point line and into the length of Kalkbrenner.

The Zips are 99th percentile in terms of jump shots off the dribble and 90th percentile on "short" jumpers according to Synergy, exactly where Creighton wants you to shoot.

Neither team plays fast, and Creigthon's inability to win the possession battle is going to set up for a barnburner in this one.

PICK: Akron +12.5

Morehead State vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

I think this is a nightmare matchup for Illinois, who has cratered on defense over the last month of the season.

The Fighting Illini are 157th in adjusted defensive efficiency since Feb. 1 mainly because the team is bottom five in the country in turnover rate in that time frame according to Bart Torvik.

This is notable because the one knock on Morehead State is that the team is sloppy with the ball, outside the top 250 in turnover rate. However, if Illinois isn't going to pressure the rock and force Morehead State to turn it over, the Eagles are going to dictate this game and make it a half-court battle.

If Illinois isn't going to turn the team over I'm struggling to see the team pulling away from Morehead, who is an elite defense that has plenty of length to stick to Shannon and Coleman Hawkins that can slow this game down.

Morehead doesn't allow many 3s, ranking top 20 in 3-point rate and is 44th in average height.

This was a brutal draw for Illinois, who can't expose the Eagles' biggest weakness. The defense has been a concern for Brad Underwood's group all season, but a run in the Big Ten Tournament has quieted some doubts about the team's viability as a Final Four contender.

However, this game is going to be tight until the end (just like Illinois-Chattanooga two years ago in the 5/12 first-round game), and I think Morehead State is live to pull the upset.

PICK: Morehead State +11

Drake vs. Washington State Prediction and Pick

It's a coin-flip matchup, but I lean towards the Bulldogs, who have some matchup edges across the board that the Cougars lack.

Both teams prefer to play in the half-court, and that play style would favor the Bulldogs quite a bit, who are 47th in points per possession in the half-court. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs' defense is 35th in points allowed per possession against a Wazzu offense that is right at the national average in terms of PPP in half-court on offense while 34th on defense, per ShotQuality.

If this game is played at a slower pace, I trust Drake to come through more often. It's not only in the half-court, but it's the mid-range (31st) and post-ups (33rd) where the team can cook against Washington State's defense that is 169th in midrange points allowed per possession and 256th in the post.

On the other side, Washington State would rather force its way into the paint, but Drake shuts that down with a compact defense that typically holds teams to midrange jumpers and three-point shots, which is exactly what Wazzu doesn't want to do, outside the top 300 in three-point rate.

This game is tight, but I find myself finding more avenues to success with Drake, who has the best player on the floor in DeVries, who can get inside and score where Washington State struggles on defense.

PICK: Drake ML (-115)

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