Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets for Sunday's Elite Eight Action (Tennessee has Edge vs. Purdue)

Half the Final Four is set, we got two more spots to fill.

One region, the Midwest, has held to form this NCAA Tournament, with top seeds Purdue and Tennessee set to renew pleasantries in the regional final while Duke and NC State play an all-ACC Elite Eight matchup in the South Region after each team upset the top seeds in the region on Friday night.

It should be a quality day of basketball, let's get you set with my thoughts on each matchup:

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Best College Basketball Bets Today

• Tennessee (+3.5) vs. Purdue
• NC State vs. Duke (-7)

Tennessee vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

The first meeting between these two featured 78 combined free throws and a four-point Purdue victory. If the Boilermakers are going to the line north of 40 times again, the team will be tough to stop with Edey’s excellence, but I’m going to bank on the better defense winning out. 

In that same meeting, the Vols turned Purdue over 16 times, a 21% turnover rate, as the likes of Zakai Zeigler and Jhmai Mashack made life difficult for the Boilermakers ball handlers. It's worth noting that Zeigler was still recovering from his knee injury that cost him the end of last season, he's far more capable now.

Anyway, suppose Tennessee can pressure the rock and limit the Purdue offense that is top 10 in offensive rebounding rate to one chance, I believe that the offense is suited to go toe-to-toe with its Big Ten opponent on Sunday afternoon. 

Similar to Creighton, Purdue will drop Edey in pick-and-roll coverage, content allowing mid-range jump shots but using the 7’4” center to shut off the rim for opponents. 

Tennessee is comfortable there, evident against Creighton. According to ShotQuality, Purdue is sixth in the country in mid-range shot frequency and 133rd in points per possession allowed. The Vols are 53rd in shot frequency on offense while scoring at a top 40 clip. We saw on Friday night the likes of Zeigler and Knecht are comfortable pulling up from around the elbow, and the team will need to be on from there to secure a victory. 

Further, running through its flex offense actions a ton, the Vols have been a dangerous team cutting off the ball, shooting nearly 62% on cut actions, per Synergy Sports. This is a tricky task for Purdue, who has been vulnerable in its away-from-the-ball defense, allowing teams to shoot 65% on cuts this season. 

Of course, the question is how Tennessee slows down Edey. The team has the size to make the Purdue backcourt uncomfortable, which may help with denying post up actions for Edey. If the officials call this game tight, Tennessee does have bodies in the frontcourt to at least make the big man work for his buckets, and the Vols defense grades out in the 75th percentile in terms of points per possession allowed on post ups according to Synergy.

Tennessee’s defense has been outstanding all season long, and its ability to pressure the ball is the differentiator in this matchup. The team did an excellent job against Creighton of making the team hunt for late-shot clock jump shots, and while Purdue has the ultimate safety valve in Edey, the team hasn’t seen this type of ball pressure in the Big Ten for much of this season.

It’s worth noting, that in the Boilermakers' four losses this season, the team had a turnover percentage greater than 20%. This is the key for the Vols.  

Lastly, many games in this tournament have been decided by who gets hot (or cold) from the perimeter. Purdue has arguably been the biggest benefactor of shot-making in the whole country. Since February 1st, Purdue has been shooting about 39% from beyond the arc and holding teams to about 28%, the only team to be top 30 on both sides of the ball. Will there be some shot regression at the wrong time?

Of course, these two played so there is some familiarity, but that game was back-and-forth for much of that one. I think Tennessee gets over the hump this time and goes to the Final Four. 

PICK: Tennessee +3.5

NC State vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

NC State deserves a ton of credit for getting here, but I’d be remiss not to mention that Marquette made only four of its 31 three-point shots in the Wolfpack’s nine-point win on Friday night. 

The Golden Eagles, an above-average to elite perimeter offense went cold on the wrong night and it was the difference in the game. Now, against Duke’s elite set of shotmakers, I don’t believe the Wolfpack will be as fortunate. 

Duke is 13th in the country in three-point percentage, and if the team is going to get a handful of open looks from beyond the arc like Marquette had, this will be a tough ask for NC State to keep up. 

If you look at the matchup the Wolfpack won back on March 14th in the ACC Tournament, Duke shot 25% from beyond the arc and 57% from the free throw line as NC State made 43% of its three-point attempts. It’s worth noting that the Wolfpack also shot a brutal 55% from the free throw line. 

Kyle Filipowski found a ton of success in this one, scoring 28 points on 13-of-20 shooting and grabbed 14 rebounds, but Jeremy Roach was out of sorts and the wings of Tyrese Proctor and Jared McCain combined to shoot 20% from three-point range. 

I expect a more complete Duke effort in this one and some lingering shooting regression to hit NC State. 

The Blue Devils are in the 96th percentile in spot up offense this season and 92nd in pick-and-roll ball-handler offense, per Synergy. With Roach operating out of screens from Filipowski, I expect plenty of open looks inside and out as Duke targets Burns on defense. 

On the other side of the floor, Duke grades out as a very good post defense and may not send any extra defenders at Burns, opting to let him try and win down low. The Blue Devils will out-pace them on the other end with a bevy of threes and handing the Wolfpack some long-awaited regression. 

I think Duke wins in style as NC State’s miracle run is probably a game too long to begin with. 

PICK: Duke -7

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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