Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Back Florida to Cover vs. Michigan)

College basketball betting preview, predictions and best bets for Florida vs. Michigan and Memphis vs. Virginia on Tuesday, Dec. 19.

Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. drives to the basket against East Carolina on Thursday night at the
Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. drives to the basket against East Carolina on Thursday night at the / ROY FUOCO/THE LEDGER / USA TODAY NETWORK
facebooktwitterreddit

The college basketball season is ramping back up with school's finishing finals and putting the final touches on respective non conference schedules.

While it's not a loaded slate of hoops, there are plenty of high profile matchups, including Florida and Michigan meeting on a neutral site in Charlotte and Virginia playing its first true road game against upstart Memphis, who knocked off ACC foe Clemson over the weekend.

Two of the biggest games of the card are showing a valuable side, keep reading to find out our best bets for Tuesday, but also know that you can sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook using the link below, bet just $5 on any moneyline and get $150 in bonus bets if it wins!

Best College Basketball Bets for Tuesday, Dec. 19

  • Parlay: Memphis ML/Indiana ML (-124)
  • Florida (-3) vs. Michigan

Virginia vs. Memphis Prediction and Pick

I got a bit creative backing Memphis at home against Virginia, who hits the road for its first true road game on Tuesday night.

The Tigers have a propensity to struggle covering the closing number with some erratic decision making down the stretch (evident in the team's non cover by a half point against Clemson on Saturday which I'm traumatized by), but I do believe the team is in good shape to grab a win outright, just maybe not by more than one possession.

The Tigers ball pressure scheme will put pressure on Virginia's methodical offense that is outside the top 300 in terms of average possession length, per KenPom. Virginia's offense is top five in turnover rate so the team may be equipped to mitigate the damage here, but I don't trust the team's top 50 three-point percentage to travel against a stingy Memphis defense. Further, Virginia doesn't crash the glass, so there will be limited extra possessions for the Woos.

Meanwhile, Virginia's defense has been nails this season, but the weakpoint is at limiting second chances, 278th in defensive rebounding rate. This is a physical Memphis team that is top half of the country in offensive rebounding percentage and top 100 in free throw rate. The team has a clear athelticism edge on the wing and can pull Virginia's best defender, rim protector Ryan Dunn, away from the rim potentially, opening up driving lanes and opportunities at the rim.

I'm not bullish UVA grabs a road win in its first true road test, so I'll take Memphis on the moneyline and pair it with Indiana to bring down the price.

The Hoosiers squandered a late lead to Kansas at home last weekend, but the team should have little issue with Morehead State. The Hoosiers have struggled from 3-point range all season, 321st in the country, but have the size and physicality to overpower Morehead State at Assembly Hall. IU is top 10 in free throw rate (MSU is 302nd in free throw rate allowed) and is top 50 in the two-point field goal percentage.

PICK: Memphis ML/Indiana ML (-124)

Michigan vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

Tough matchup for the Wolverines, who can't contain dribble penetration at all this season, but have been posting very nice rim protection numbers. The Wolverines are in the bottom 100 in terms of average shot proximity while defending the rim at a top 20 percentage. However, ShotQuality deems that Michigan is due a six percent increase in opponent field goal percentage at the rim, and Florida may expose that.

The Gators are 11th in average shot proximity while playing at the sixth highest pace (per Haslametrics). The team's pick-and-roll heavy scheme should give Michigan fits as the team plays inside the arc. Further, the Gators are due a six percent increase in finishing at the rim themselves, so this can be a perfect storm for a UF convincing victory.

Florida has been prone to turnovers, but the Wolverines are in the bottom 100 in turnover rate and the Gators size on the interior, fourth in offensive rebounding percentage and 30th in free throw rate, should make this a tough out for the Wolverines short rotation.

These two teams aren't in the same class and I like the Gators to get a comfortable win in Charlotte.

PICK: Florida -3

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!