Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Best Bets for St. John's-UConn, All Conference Tournament Action)
By Reed Wallach
Fellas, buckle up.
We have more college hoops action as conference tournament play picks up with high-level action tipping off on in the early afternoon and raging through the night. The madness of March indeed. With teams jockeying for conference supremacy, I've circled four underdogs on the Friday card I'm backing.
Here's how the ledger looks for Friday in hopes of shaking off a brutal end game of the Boston College-Virginia and a losing Thursday. Overall, the college basketball season-long record sits at 166-156-7 (+5.18U). There will likely be more plays added to my betstamp @rw33
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Best College Basketball Bets Today
- St. John's (+10) vs. UConn
- Florida (+4) vs. Alabama
- San Diego State vs. Utah State (+3.5)
- NC State (+2.5) vs. Virginia
St. John's vs. UConn Prediction and Pick
The Johnnies have played the Huskies tough this season, losing by four at UConn (Huskies big man Donovan Clingan didn't play) and then squandering a one-point halftime lead at Madison Square Garden en route to a 13-point defeat.
The Red Storm have been playing its best ball at the right time, 21st in adjusted efficiency according to Bart Torvik. Rick Pitino's bunch has been upping its intensity by turning foes over at the 54th-highest percentage in the nation and 19th in offensive rebounding rate. Of course, UConn is a cut above the rest, but keep an eye on an off-night coming from the Huskies.
ShotQuaity deems that the team is owed a six percent rise in three-point field goal percentage and the team has eased off its ball pressure of late, 242nd in turnover rate since February 1st. Further, the team is right at the league average in terms of coughing the ball up through Big East play.
This spread at MSG closed UConn -3.5 in early February. While there is no denying that the Huskies are the best team in the country, I'll take the Red Storm to keep up its fine form and keep this game competitive on its pseudo-home court with some looming regression for the defending champs.
I also don't hate a look at the first-half spread if St. John's jumps out to a hot start similar to have Xavier did in the first half.
PICK: St. John's +9.5
Florida vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick
The Gators and Crimson Tide split the regular season series with Florida taking Alabama to overtime in Tuscaloosa and blowing them out in Gainesville. Both teams tend to thrive on their home court, but I don't believe the difference between these two is more than a few buckets.
Florida's ability to shut off the perimeter for opponents is notable against Nate Oats' analytically sound scheme that maximizes three-point shots and layups more than any other team in the country. However, the Gators allow the 40th lowest three-point rate in the country, per KenPom, and are 29th in field goal percentage allowed near the rim according to Haslametrics.
Meanwhile, Alabama's frontline is a concern on both ends, but namely defense. The group lacks depth and is prone to getting into foul trouble, which is notable against a Gators offense that prefers to get inside and get to the rim, 61st in average shot distance and is relentless on the glass, and fifth in offensive rebounding percentage. Alabama is 131st in field goal percentage allowed at the rim, 229th in defensive rebounding rate, and 311th in opponent free throw rate.
The Crimson Tide are a volatile bunch, 308th in consistency according to Haslametrics while the Gators are 22nd in the same metric. I'll trust the more steady group to handle the neutral setting and be live for an upset.
PICK: Florida +4
San Diego State vs. Utah State Prediction and Pick
Two Mountain West stalwarts that are off overtime wins meet in the semifinals of the conference tournament.
After splitting the season series with each home team winning by double digits, I like the underdog Aggies to cover the modest point spread.
This is more of a fade of the San Diego State offense than anything the worst three-point shooting team in the MWC this season. Utah State does a great job of slowing games down in transition, 348th in opponent transition rate, and forcing teams into midrange jumpers. While SDSU is content shooting from there, 25% of its shots are deemed midrange jump shots, per ShotQuality, the team ranks 175th in points per possession.
Meanwhile, SDSU's physical defense does turn opponents over at the highest clip in the conference, but Utah Stae's group of ball handlers led by Darius Brown and big man Great Osobor have proven they can be up to the task. In the two games, Utah State played to about its season-long average in conference play.
Further, the team's ability to play through Osobor down low is notable as the Aggies love to generate motion and cut off him to get shots near the rim. ShotQuality deems that SDSU is owed a six percent increase in field goal percentage allowed at the rim.
I believe SDSU should be favored, but not by more than a bucket in a game that likely is decided in the final minutes.
PICK: Utah State +3.5
NC State vs. Virginia Prediction and Pick
Virginia escaped a win against Boston College despite a porous offensive effort, pulling away to win as five-point favorites against the Eagles in overtime.
The team draws a surging North Carolina State team that has been resurgent on offense in ACC Tournament play. The Wolfpack are playing its fourth game in four days, but provide much more firepower than the prodding Cavaliers offense.
Virginia's woes against Charlottesville have continued, a team that is outside the top 300 in away from home rating, and it was apparent in this series as well. The team lost by 16 in Raleigh as NC State shot north of 62% on two's in the win, but did win in overtime in the rematch.
While this game may be played in the half court as Virginia pleases, the Wolfpack have proven capable of scoring that way. The team is right around the national average in terms of points per possession in the half-court and has plenty of isolation scorers that can go get a bucket, including the now-healthy DJ Horne, as NC State is 96th in points per possession.
Virginia won ugly on Thursday and was lucky to cover. I don't think the team gets as lucky against a potent NC State offense.
PICK: NC State +2.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.