Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (BYU, Duke in Trouble in Conference Road Games)
By Reed Wallach
College football season is over and all eyes turn to college hoops, and boy do we have a loaded slate of games on Tuesday night.
There are plenty of marquee matchups across the board with plenty of bets to share, including road trips for the likes of BYU and Baylor as well as a gut-check call for a reeling Texas A&M team, who travels to Auburn to take on a surging SEC contender.
We'll break down a handful of games on the Tuesday card with betting tips on all of them. You can sign up with FanDuel Sportsbook to get bonus bets also! Sign up using the link below and you'll get $150 in bonus bets whether you win or lose your first $5 wager. Get started now!
Season Record: 35-30-2 (+1.89U)
Best College Basketball Bets for Tuesday, January 9th
- BYU vs. Baylor (-3)
- Duke vs. Pitt (+5)
- Texas A&M (+7) vs. Auburn
BYU vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick
BYU is a team I'm itching to fade as the Cougars enter Big 12 play. The team was as impressive as anybody in non-conference play, but against a relatively soft schedule that featured only two KenPom top 100 teams.
While the team entered the KenPom top five, Mark Pope's team was on shaky ground, and it was exposed against a physical Cincinnati team in Provo on Saturday night, losing by double digits to the Bearcats. Now, with a quick turnaround to Waco to face Baylor, the Cougs are in trouble.
Baylor's defense isn't so potent this season, 70th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency that is held up by a strong strength of schedule, but the offense is as dangerous as any team in the country.
The Bears are second in the country in effective field goal percentage. While I doubt the team will continue to shoot a national-best 45% from beyond the arc, I also don't believe in BYU's three-point defense that is allowing teams to shoot the fifth lowest three-point percentage in 26%.
There's two-way regression for both Baylor's three-point shooting and BYU's three-point defense, but I'm far more comfortable backing the Bears offense to keep up at home.
The key for Baylor will be its ability to make BYU play in the half court, which it does at a bottom 10 rate according to ShotQuality. While the Cougs offense is still dangerous when not in transition, scoring at a top 40 rate per SQ, the Baylor defense is nails, 10th in that same metric on defense.
I believe Baylor can pounce on a vulnerable team at home and cover this spread with a strong offensive performance in a welcoming party for BYU to the Big 12.
PICK: Baylor -3
Duke vs. Pitt Prediction and Pick
Last week I faded North Carolina at Pitt and came up short, but I'm going back to the well with the Panthers at home to hang with Duke at Petersen Events Center.
Duke's Kyle Filipowski is a game wrecker for most teams, a seven-footer that can stretch the floor and take defenders off the dribble. However, Pitt has the length to slow him down with three players 6'8" or taller that can rotate on him, including Blaek Hinson and the Diaz Graham brothers.
The Blue Devils have blue chip names on the roster, but the defense is painfully average. The team is 121st in effective field goal percentage and doesn't pressure the ball all that much (76th in turnover rate).
Further, the team can run into a math problem against a strong three-point shooting team in Pitt as Duke allows an open three rate of 14% (161st in the country) per SQ and the Panthers are dangerous from beyond the arc, 33rd in three-point rate and above the national average in three-point percentage.
PICK: Pitt +5
Texas A&M vs. Auburn Prediction and Pick
Auburn is at the peak of its rating this season. The team is up to fifth in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rating after winning its seventh straight game at spiraling Arkansas by 32 points. The team has shut down the interior with the likes of Jaylin Williams and Johni Broom while providing relentless rim pressure to generate easy buckets.
However, I'm selling the Tigers on Tuesday back at home against a Texas A&M team that is fresh off a 15-point home loss to LSU as a double-digit favorite.
Sounds nuts, right? Well, let me explain.
The Aggies defense is uniquely designed to take Auburn out of its comfort zone. Buzz Williams' zone pressure scheme shuts off the interior for opponents and turns everybody into three-point shooting outfits, which is exactly what the Tigers don't want to do (161st in three-point percentage).
While Texas A&M isn't a jump-shooting team by any means, the team is due for a slight uptick from its 26% (350th in the country). Further, the team is No. 1 in the country in terms of offensive rebounding rate while playing at a sub-300 tempo, so the Aggies can win the possession battle and grind this game to a halt.
This is a steep upgrade for Auburn, and I'm willing to take Texas A&M to hang around in this one and stay within three buckets to cover this inflated number.
PICK: Texas A&M +7
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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