Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Can You Trust Texas Tech at Home vs. Texas?)
By Reed Wallach
Tuesday's college basketball slate is set to be a high-level one with a handful of NCAA Tournament previews in conference play.
Texas Tech will look to make it a season sweep over rival Texas, but injuries are playing a role with the Red Raiders potentially down two starters. Meanwhile, in the Big 12, Kansas will look to maintain its fine standing in the Big 12 with another home win despite not having forward Kevin McCullar Jr.
Kansas is a considerable favorite and it may be best to pair the Jayhawks with another likely winner, I did just that below.
Here's my favorite bets for the Tuesday college hoops slate:
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College Basketball Season Long Record: 126-105-5 (+13.55U)
Best College Basketball Bets Today
- Texas vs. Texas Tech (-3)
- Kansas/Mississippi State ML Parlay (+106)
Texas vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick
Injuries are playing a role in this betting market as we await word if the Red Raiders will have two starters available in Chance McMillian, who missed Saturday's game with a sore hip, and Warren Washington, who returned on Saturday but was hobbled all game after missing two straight with a foot injury.
As of now, both are game-time decisions.
In any event, it's Texas Tech or pass for me in this game. The Longhorns are over-reliant on its three-point shooting to offset some of its turnover issues on offense. Texas is shooting nearly 37% from beyond the arc but is turning it over at the ninth-highest rate in the league. The Longhorns are 310th in shots at the rim this season, where the Red Raiders can be vulnerable with Washington limited by injury.
However, if Texas Tech can stop dribble penetration, this can become a three-point contest where I don't trust the Longhorns to hold up on the road.
Meanwhile, the Red Raiders offense should be able to navigate Texas' defense that is due some harsh regression. The visitors are one of the worst defenses in the country at protecting the rim, 326th in points per possession allowed according to ShotQuality. Further, the team is due a seven percent increase in opponents' field goal percentage at the rim, so it may only get worse for UT.
Texas Tech has been a pleasant surprise on offense in Big 12 play, second in effective field goal percentage and turnover rate. The team has a steady diet of shots from all over the floor and should relish getting back home to Lubbock after a tough loss at UCF, one of the best defenses in the league.
I'm going to wait for clarity on the TTU injury report, and lay it with the home favorite, even if the number steams up to -4.
PICK: Texas Tech -3
Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick
The see-saw of Kentucky continues, as I'm looking to play against the Wildcats following an astonishing 117-95 win at home against Alabama.
Kentucky has a high ceiling, no denying that, but the expected outcome of this team is a disaster on defense and has underwhelmed for much of this season.
I expect Mississippi State, who has won five straight, can limit the explosive UK offense and overpower the team down low where the Wildcats have been vulnerable all season.
Mississippi State is shooting nearly 63% at the rim this season, 52nd in the country, and should be able to slow this game to a crawl with its stout transition defense. I'll challenge Kentucky to maintain its level after such an offensive explosion on Saturday against a physical defense at Mississippi State.
If Kentucky is on from the perimeter, where the team is shooting nearly 41% from the perimeter, I'll have to tip my cap, but I'm going to side with the hosts who bolster one of the best defenses in the league and does a good job of turning over opponents.
Meanwhile, keep an eye on the Kentucky frontcourt that can struggle with the likes of Tolu Smith down low. Kentucky is 10th in opponent free throw rate in SEC play and seventh in defensive rebounding rate, both facets of the game that the Bulldogs excel at and can use to its advantage to slow down the potent -- and quick -- Kentucky offense.
I'll avoid laying the points with the Bulldogs and instead pair it with another likely winner in Kansas, as I'll break down below.
BYU vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick
No Kevin McCullar Jr. will be a hit to the Jayhawks' depth, but the team was able to rally and blowout Texas at home. While BYU may be able to create more issues for Kansas with its off-ball movement and perimeter attack, I don't believe the team will be able to hold up at Allen Fieldhouse.
The Cougars stayed on the road after losing to Kansas State on Saturday, and its road woes are well documented. BYU is 355th in Haslametrics away from home rating, which will be emphasized on the road at Kansas, which bolsters one of the most effective home-court advantages in college basketball.
Further, BYU's defense is vulnerable in the paint, outside the top 300 in near-rim field goal percentage allowed this season. With Dickinson down low, the Jayhawks are sixth in the country finishing around the cup and should be able to get easy buckets against the visitors on Tuesday.
I do believe BYU will have some answers on offense, the team is fourth in effective field goal percentage in Big 12 play, but the defense is of utmost concern on the road, and Kansas should be able to pull away and cover at home.
PICK: Kansas ML/Mississippi State ML (+106)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.