Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Fade Houston on Road)

Take a deep breath, we have another loaded college hoops slate.

As we get closer to the postseason, teams are starting to show its true self and there are marquee matchups littered all over the college basketball card, starting at noon with the top team in the country Houston heading to Baylor in another tricky road test.

While there are impactful games at the top of the card, I'm also eyeing a few games in the mid-major ranks to fill out the heavy Saturday card.

New college basketball bettors! Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook below and get $150 in bonus bets when you win your first bet of just $5!

College Basketball Season Long Record: 119-94-5 (+17.93U)

Best College Basketball Bets for Saturday, February 24

• Houston vs. Baylor (+2.5)
• East Carolina (PK) vs. Rice
• Virginia Tech vs. Pitt (-3)
• Sam Houston State vs. UTEP (-2)

Houston vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick

While Houston has remained at the top of most advanced metrics sites for the entire season, the team has done it despite being incredibly poor (relative to sky high expectations) on the road.

The Cougars rank 360th in Haslametrics away rating, which flies directly into a buzzsaw in home Baylor, who checks in 13th in its home rating inside the newly constructed Foster Pavilion.

Houston's offense revolves around its ability to clean the glass, but there's no denying that the red flags are up for this team in the shot making department. In true road games this season, Kelvin Sampson's bunch is 335th in effective field goal percentage this season, checking in at 44%. However, the team gets so many shots up, rebounding 35% of its misses, that it offsets some of the concerns.

While Baylor is a middle of the road defensive team, the group does a good job of keeping teams outside the paint, 79th in average shot proximity nationally, and has been sprinkling in some zone defense as well. If this becomes a jump shooting contest, give me the home dog.

Baylor is one of the most potent offenses in the country, ninth in effective field goal percentage and inside the top 26 in both offensive rebounding and free throw rate. This is huge against a Cougars defense that fouls at an alarming rate with its physical defense, ranking outside the top 300 in terms of opponent free throw rate.

Houston has struggled on the road all season, and I'll take the home underdog to shoot over the packline Cougars defense and either win, or keep this within a bucket.

PICK: Baylor +2.5

East Carolina vs. Rice Prediction and Pick

Rice stunned UAB on the road in the middle of this week behind an offensive explosion, shooting 60% from the field and making 11-of-19 three-point shots. For what it's worth ShotQuality graded that as a clear Blazers win despite the 23-point loss on paper.

I'll bank on some harsh regression back at home against a sturdy ECU defense that leads the AAC in turnover rate.

The Owls have struggled all season protecting the rock, outside the top 200 nationally and 10th in AAC play and that has led to the home team chucking from beyond the arc. Rice is fifth in AAC three-point rate and shooting at a blistering 37% (aided by Wednesday's heater). ECU will oblige, allowing the second highest three-point rate in conference play.

However, with harsh regression looming, I believe we are getting a discounted price on the Pirates, who have been rated higher than the Owls for most of this season, but the team jumped 35 spots in KenPom following the monster performance on Wednesday.

PICK: East Carolina PK

Virginia Tech vs. Pitt Prediction and Pick

Two teams that love to chuck it from deep set up for a high variance affair when Virginia Tech and Pitt do battle on Saturday, but I think we are getting a nice price on the home favorite to win with margin.

These two teams had opposite results earlier in the week driving this price as Virginia Tech bulldozed rival Virginia to the tune of 75-41 on Monday and Pitt got steam rolled by Wake Forest 91-58 on the road on Tuesday.

This week, Virginia Tech has gone from 64th to 50th in KenPom rankins and Pitt has dropped to 59th after sitting at 51st. That's how stark these results were, but this is a one game sample in what's been a near-30 game season.

Pitt will be able to stick to Virginia Tech's perimeter threats in Sean Pedulla and Hunter Cattoor with its length at the guard positions that clogs up driving lanes and also overpower Virginia Tech on the boards. The Panthers backcourt of Jaland Lowe and Ishmael Leggett each stand 6'3", each taller than the aforementioned Va. Tech backcourt, and the team is top half of the ACC in terms of turnover rate.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is middle of the road nationally in rebounding rate while Pitt checks in 43rd. I don't believe the Hokies frontcourt can keep the Panthers off the glass and 6'8" wing Blake Hinson may have a big game after cooling off from a two-week long heater in which he shot 63% from three over the team's recent five game winning streak.

These two teams are streaky, each leading the ACC in three-point rate and each outside the top 200 in terms of consistency. However, we have seen Virginia Tech really struggle on the road, 352nd in away rating, and given the recent result for each team, I'll bank on some regression to the mean.

PICK: Pitt -3

Sam Houston State vs. UTEP Prediction and Pick

Fading Sam Houston State on Thursday didn't go so well for me, but I'll tip my cap to the Bearkats, who shot 12-of-21 from three-point range against New Mexico State on the road.

However, I'll bank on UTEP to get it back for me on Saturday, the C-USA leader in turnover rate, forcing opponents to cough up the rock on 27% of its possessions. The Miners have proven it can rattle the Bearkats offense, just look at the first meeting where the team forced 22 turnovers but ended up losing by four because the team couldn't keep SHSU off the glass, allowing 22 offensive rebounds.

While this has been a thorn in the Miners side all season, the team is eighth in defensive rebounding rate, I'm going to side with the home team to score a win against a Sam Houston State team that couldn't generate sound offense in the first meeting at home and is off a scorching night from the perimeter.

UTEP's only two home losses have come against the two best teams in the league in Louisiana Tech and Liberty by a combined eight points. The team is typically far stronger at home, winning by six or more in the four other meetings and seeing a seven percent increase in effective field goal percentage.

Give me the home favorite to get it done.

PICK: UTEP -1.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!