Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today for Friday's Sweet 16 Action
By Reed Wallach
With half of the Elite Eight finalized, it's time to get to the other one.
We have four high-level matchups on Thursday in Sweet 16 action, headlined by Houston and Duke meet in a clash of styles in the South Region semifinals. However, don't overlook the second game in the Midwest Region Sewet 16 with Tennessee and Creighton playing to keep its season alive.
Here's how I'm betting Friday's NCAA Tournament slate.
College Basketball Season Long Record: 212-213-9, +3.02U
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Best College Basketball Bets Today
- Houston/Marquette ML Parlay (+100)
- Tennessee -3 vs. Creighton
Duke vs. Houston Prediction and Pick
It was a tale of two games for Duke, who struggled to get separation from Vermont in the first round for the first 30 minutes of the game before Vermont’s ineffective offense let go of the rope against Duke’s sheer talent. Meanwhile, in the second game, the team played to its level from the tip and destroyed James Madison in short order.
However, the team will face a physical Houston unit that I don’t believe Duke will be able to handle, similar to when the team was disposed of against a bruising Tennessee team in the second round last season.
Duke has plenty of shot-making, the team is 18th in effective field goal percentage but hasn’t been challenged with an intense ball-pressure defense like Houston’s presents, posting the third-highest turnover rate in the country.
With the Cougars' ball-trapping defense, the likes of Jeremy Roach will need to swing the ball quickly as the likes of McCain and Tyrese Proctor will be relied on heavily to cash in from beyond the arc. Houston does allow a top 100 rate of threes, but the team contests all of them. Houston is in the 98th percentile in spot-up points allowed per possession at an incredibly high rate (27% of defensive possessions), per Synergy Sports.
On the other side, I believe Houston’s ability to clean the glass can look similar to how North Carolina dominated Duke on the glass. North Carolina had an offensive rebounding rate north of 25% in both wins against Duke, and Houston is even better than that, 11th in the country instead of 73rd.
Houston has suspect shot making, outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage, but I believe its ability to win the shot volume battle will be the difference and the team will advance.
I'm going to lay off the spread and pair it with a likely winner in Marquette...
North Carolina State vs. Marquette Prediction and Pick
This is where the surprising run from North Carolina State comes to an end.
Marquette’s up-tempo attack is going to be too much for the short rotation of the Wolfpack who are a poor transition defense and won’t be able to slow down Marquette’s motion offense that generates some of the most efficient offense in the entire country.
With Kolek and big man Oso Ighadoro (who is an excellent passer in his own right on the short roll), I believe that the Golden Eagles can target Burns in the pick-and-roll and get plenty of high-quality shots both at the rim (26th in field goal percentage at the rim) and the perimeter (59th in three-point percentage).
It’s worth noting that NC State can handle Marquette’s ball pressure, the Wolfpack is 10th in turnover percentage, but the team likely doesn’t have the three-point prowess to keep up with the Golden Eagles. Marquette is 338th in opponent three-point rate, but NC State is only at the national average in three-point percentage.
It’s worth noting that Marquette can be had on defense if the Wolfpack can enter the ball on the post. The team grades out just average in terms of post-defense, per Synergy, but the issue is that the team’s post-denial is fantastic.
I believe Marquette's offense can cruise to a comfortable win against the out-matched Wolfpack.
PICK: Houston/Marquette ML Parlay (+100)
Creighton vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick
There are several matchup edges for Tennessee in this one, namely in its way to pressure the ball handler against Creighton, who remains limited in that department. Steven Ashworth will struggle to run the offense with All-SEC defender Zakai Zeigler draped on him and the likes of Jonas Aidoo protecting the rim.
The Vols' defense is third in the country according to KenPom due to its ability to clean the glass, pressure the ball, and contest shots. While the team will let Creighton hoist from the defense as it pleases, the team is destined to lose the shot volume battle against the rugged SEC defense.
It’s worth noting that Creighton loves to push the pace and beat the defense down the floor, and Tennessee has struggled in transition defense, rating 12th percentile in that category, per Synergy Sports. This game could become a battle of who can dictate the pace.
On the other side, Greg McDermott’s bunch grades out dead last in turnover rate, a concerning trend against a Vols team that is top 70 nationally in offensive rebounding rate and offset a 12% three-point shooting game against Texas with 10 more field goal attempts.
Zeigler and Knecht may be able to unpack the Creighton defense with its pick-and-roll game. The Bluejays grade out in the 12th percentile in terms of defending pick-and-rolls in terms of points per possession, a concern against the Vols offense that is 85th percentile in that regard but doesn’t run it very much (8% of offensive possessions). Can this be the wrinkle that Rick Barnes uses to pull Kalkbrenner away from the rim?
There is a case to be made for both sides, two elite units, but I believe Tennessee can be relied upon more game-to-game and will have the best player on the floor in Knecht. Further, the team's ability to score from all three levels at a well-distributed rate is going to be the key against a Creighton team that lives and dies with the three-point shot.
After the Bluejays shot 58% against Akron and 38% against Oregon, both above its season-long average, can we see the team that is top 10 in three-point rate fall off from the perimeter, and its lack of ability to generate more points, en route to a loss? I'm betting on it.
PICK: Tennessee -3
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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