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Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (How to Bet Dayton vs. VCU, San Diego State vs. Nevada)

By Reed Wallach

Dec 29, 2023; Spokane, Washington, USA; San Diego State Aztecs forward Jaedon LeDee (13) shoots a
Dec 29, 2023; Spokane, Washington, USA; San Diego State Aztecs forward Jaedon LeDee (13) shoots a / James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
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Friday's college hoops action is limited to three games, but that doesn't mean we don't have wagers for the start of the weekend.

The biggest matchup on the docket is San Diego State traveling to Nevada in a primetime Mountain West showdown with Nevada looking to position itself for an NCAA Tournament bid, but is this a great matchup for Aztecs big man Jaedon LeDee to put up a monster statistical performance?

Here are our three favorite bets, including how to bet a massive matchup in the Atlantic 10 between Dayton and VCU.

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Best College Basketball Bets for Friday, February 9th

  • Dayton (-120) vs. VCU
  • Jaedon LeDee OVER 25.5 Points + Rebounds
  • San Jose State vs. Colorado State (-15.5)

Dayton vs. VCU Prediction and Pick

VCU's offense is reliant on getting in transition and creating easy buckets, the team is 67th in transition rate, per ShotQuality, and scoring at the 12th highest clip per possession. However, Dayton's methodical style will shut this offense down. The Flyers are bottom 15 in transition rate allowed and top 60 in points allowed per possession.

The Flyers are second in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric in confernece play, based around a compact that defense that contests perimeter shots and drag possessions out. The Rams are shooting 40% from beyond the arc in league play, but are going to struggle to get quality looks against the Flyers defense that is 35th in effective field goal percentage.

Meanwhile, the VCU defense is shutting down teams to the fifth lowest effective field goal percentage in the entire country, but the team will struggle with Holmes down low. The Rams have one player 6'10" or taller to matchup with Holmes, big man Christian Fermin. If the team needs to send extra coverage towards Holmes, Dayton will cook in this one, shooting 40% from three this season, the sixth highest in the country.

Dayton will grind this game to a halt, the team is 347th in adjusted tempo, and outduel VCU's shooting from the perimeter with its more diverse offense, leading to a Flyers road win. -- Reed Wallach

PICK: Dayton ML (-120)

San Diego State vs. Nevada Prediction and Pick

LeDee was a monster in the first meeting, a 71-59 home win, scoring 22 points while grabbing 12 rebounds. A contender for Mountain West Player of the Year, LeDee's ability to clean the glass and get to the free throw line (he had 12 free throw attempts in the first meeting) is incredibly impactful and I'm going back to the well in this Friday night matchup.

Nevada is one of the worst rebounding teams in the Mountain West, bottom half of the conference on both sides of the ball, which means LeDee should have a big outing, the team's primary rebounder. Further, the Wolf Pack have been prone to getting in foul trouble, the team is below the national average in opponent free throw rate.

I think LeDee can put together another comprehensive performance and go over this total. -- Reed Wallach

PICK: Jaedon LeDee OVER 25.5 Points + Rebounds

San Jose State vs. Colorado State Prediction and Pick

Overs have been great in San Jose State games this season (15-7), including a 6-3 mark on the road. Those overs have been mostly from a Spartans’ defense that is 10th in the Mountain West in scoring (74.9 points per game) and last in opponent’s field goal percentage (46.7%). 

San Jose State is ranked No. 297 in KenPom in overall defensive efficiency and is one of the worst teams in the country (No. 358) in defending 3-point field goals. Colorado State is third in the Mountain West from beyond the arc (36.5%) and are one of the best teams in the country at shooting from inside the arc (No. 6).

Colorado State has one of the best offenses in the country (ranked No. 22 overall and No. 8 in effective field goal percentage) and are facing a San Jose State defense that is giving up points in droves this season. Stay away from the spread and just go with Colorado State to soar over its team total. -- Shelby Dermer

PICK: Colorado State -15.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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