Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (How to Bet Saturday's LOADED Slate)
By Reed Wallach
Another Saturday and another slate of college basketball that is north of 100 games.
There will be plenty of contested matchups on the hardwood Saturday, and of course, we want some bets. I have three write ups below on some of my favorite spots on the card, including the marquee matchup of Saturday between Marquette and UConn in a battle of the top two teams in the Big East.
Elsewhere, I’m targeting TCU and Kansas State in a Big 12 showdown in Manhattan and the in-state rivalry matchup between Michigan State and Michigan.
You can find all my bets for Saturday and beyond on my betstamp below.
Season Long Record: 107-78-5 (+23.49U)
Best College Basketball Bets Today
- TCU (+2) vs. Kansas State
- Marquette (+7) vs. UConn
- Michigan State vs. Michigan (+6.5)
TCU vs. Kansas State Prediction and Pick
Kansas State doesn’t lose at home very often. Since Jerome Tang came over from Baylor he has reignited what is nicknamed ‘The Octagon of Doom,’ as the Wildcats have dropped just three games there.
However, this matchup against TCU on Saturday doesn’t set up nicely for what has been a dismal Kansas State offense this season, especially at protecting the ball. The Wildcats are 351st in turnover percentage this season and are sloppiest with it against the vaunted Big 12 defenses that pressure the ball at a high rate.
The Horned Frogs fit the bill as a team that blitzes the ball handler and force a ton of turnovers. TCU is 26th in the country in turnover rate (third in Big 12 play) according to KenPom, and uses its aggressive ball pressure to jumpstart its transition attack.
By generating easy buckets, the Horned Frogs can stunt Kansas State’s stout halfcourt defense that ranks inside the top 100 nationally in points allowed per possession according to ShotQuality.
KSU’s defense grades out very nicely, the team has allowed the lowest effective field goal percentage in league play, yet the defense doesn’t pressure the ball (11th in B12 TO%), doesn’t rebound well (12th in DREB%) and fouls at a high rate (13th).
These are all things that TCU can exploit. The downhill nature of this offense can be sloppy with the rock, but won’t be exposed against Kansas State (10th in B12 TO%), but rebounds very well (4th in OREB%) and gets to the line at an average clip (7th in free throw rate).
TCU has done well on the road, nearly knocking off Kansas and losing in overtime to Cincinnati while also winning in triple overtime against Kansas State. Meanwhile, for all the hype around K-State’s home record, the team has won three of four league games by five or fewer with two in overtime in addition to losing by 20 to Oklahoma.
I think we are getting Kansas State at an inflated home price as favorites, and I’ll grab the points with the Horned Frogs (I’m fully prepared for this game to go to overtime).
PICK: TCU +2
Marquette vs. UConn
This is a battle of the two best teams in the Big East, but I'll give the edge to Marquette keeping this one competitive.
This is a battle of contrasting styles as UConn is outside the top 300 nationally in terms of pace while Marquette is inside the top 100, and you are able to run on the Huskies, who are outside the top 200 in terms of points allowed per possession, according to ShotQuality.
I'm confident the Golden Eagles can speed up the Huskies because of the team's ability to turnover a shaky ball handling unit in UConn. The Huskies are eighth in Big East turnover percentage this season and will match up with Marquette, who is turning foes over at the highest clip in conference games at over 21%.
UConn is an elite rim defense, but with Marquette's emerging three-point shooting, I believe the pick-and-roll game between Kolek and Oso Ighodoro can lift big man Donovan Clingan away from the rim and get the offense going.
Lastly, it's been a smart endeavor to trust Marquette head coach Shaka Smart as an underdog. The head coach is 87-56-4 as a dog, and 56-26-2 ATS as a road pooch, according to Tanner McGrath's findings.
I'll trust him once more to cash as an underdog.
PICK: Marquette +7
Michigan State vs. Michigan
It’s a lost season for Juwan Howard and Michigan as the team has sunk to 3-11 in Big Ten play as it welcomes surging rival Michigan State, who has won four of five in league play to 8-6 on the year.
However, with Dug McDaniel active (he’s only eligible in home games at the moment), I believe the Wolverines can hang with Sparty at home.
These two met in East Lansing back on January 30th with Michigan State closing as 12-point home favorites. However, the Wolverines led at halftime without its lead guard, but couldn’t hold up for the full 40 minutes, mainly because the team shot 14-of-26 from the free throw line and turned it over 13 times.
Now the setting flips to Ann Arbor, and I think we see Michigan outperform expectations. According to Hoop-Explorer, Michigan’s offense improves by more than 20 points per 100 possessions when McDaniel is on the floor and the defense drops off by more than 15 points.
You could say that the team’s lead ball handler is important to the Wolverines.
The proof is in the box scores as well. Michigan squandered late leads to Rutgers and Iowa at home as the offense went silent late in the game and the team outclassed Wisconsin in its most recent home game.
Michigan State has been shooting lights out in league games, over 40% against Big 10 play, but ShotQuality believes this team is due for some two-way regression. Sparty is shooting four percent above expectation from beyond the arc and holding opponents to four percent lower than expectation.
This can come to ahead against rival Michigan and we can have a barn burner on our hands Saturday night.
PICK: Michigan +6.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!