Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today for Monday, March 4th (Betting Guide for Texas vs. Baylor)
By Reed Wallach
It's the final 'Big Monday' of the 2023-2024 college basketball regular season with a marquee doubleheader on ESPN and even some early mid-major conference tournament action mixed in.
While the Atlantic Sun Tournament gets underway, most eyes will be focused on the likes of Texas and Baylor closing out Big 12 action on Mondays with a rematch of the two teams thriller back in January in Austin.
Can Baylor continue its recent surge against high-end competition, or will Texas keep this game competitive?
Here's our best bets for Monday's college hoops slate!
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Best Basketball Bets Today, March 4th
- Queens vs. Florida Gulf Coast (-3.5)
- Texas (+6.5) vs. Baylor
Queens vs. Florida Gulf Coast Prediction and Pick
Queens gives up points in droves and will face a Florida Gulf Coast Offense that tries to make the most of its possessions while playing at the No. 340 tempo in the nation.
Queens is last in the Atlantic Sun in scoring defense, giving up 82.2 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot 46.9% from the field (also worst in the conference). Queens ranked No. 316 in defensive efficiency and is one of the worst teams defending 2-point shots, ranking No. 351 in KenPom.
In the previous matchup just nine days ago, FGCU shot 53.2% from the field and 40.9% from downtown in a 90-81 victory on the road. FGCU has the No. 1 scoring defense in the ASUN, yielding just 71.2 points per game. The Eagles are worse at defending the perimeter (No. 291 against 3-point shots), but Queens has struggled shooting the rock from downtown, sinking just 34.3% of its triples. FGCU has been good in this spot, going 7-5 as a favorite while Queens has been brutal for backers as an underdog (7-12-1). Take the Eagles. -- Shelby Dermer
Texas vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick
Baylor is 7-3 in the last 10 games, thanks to scorching three-point shooting (39%) on a sky-high rate (43% three-point rate) that has offset some turnover concerns and continuing defensive issues. The Bears are 324th in turnover rate over the last month while posting the 278th-best effective field goal percentage.
The Bears are incredibly reliant on the three-point shot and getting to the free throw line, 12th in free throw rate over the last 10 games. However, Texas may have the ability to bring this Bears' offense back down to Earth.
Texas has shut off the perimeter for opponents, is 25th in opponent three-point rate over the last nine games, and doing an above-average job of pressuring the ball. While the team has been middling in terms of its perimeter shooting, the team has upped its production on the defensive side of the ball with the introduction of Chendall Weaver to the rotation.
The Longhorns are vulnerable in transition, but Baylor doesn't push the ball at all, ranking 301st in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. Meanwhile, Texas is more than willing to push and beat the Bears' defense down the floor, second in points per possession in transition, per ShotQuality.
I believe Texas can keep this game competitive in what may be more of a half-court battle. I'll take the points. -- Reed Wallach
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.