Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Seton Hall Evens Season Series with Villanova in Bubble Showdown)

Jan 13, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA;  Seton Hall Pirates guard Kadary Richmond (1) dribbles the
Jan 13, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Seton Hall Pirates guard Kadary Richmond (1) dribbles the / Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

The NCAA Tournament push is in full swing with plenty of bubble-centric games for teams as the final week of the regular season for the high majors continues.

The game with the most at stake come Wednesday is the Villanova-Seton Hall matchup with both teams on the center of the bubble. Villanova won the the first meeting by double digits and appears to be in better standing as we head into the final week of the season, can the Pirates get its postseason hopes back on track?

I'm betting that game as well as two others on Wednesday's card to make up my betting card, read below to find out what I'm on!

College Basketball Season Long Record: 141-124-6, +9.96U

New FanDuel users, get ready for March Madness by signing up with FanDuel Sportsbook! New users that use the link below and win their first bet of just $5 will get $150 in bonus bets! Get started now.

Best College Basketball Bets Today

  • Villanova vs. Seton Hall (-118)
  • Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas (+2)
  • Indiana vs. Minnesota (-5.5)

Villanova vs. Seton Hall Prediction and Pick

For starters, let's discuss Seton Hall's home record. The team is 12-3 at the Prudential Center with its three losses coming to in-state rival Rutgers, triple overtime against Creighton and Providence by four. The Pirates have beaten UConn and Marquette at 'The Rock' as well.

While backing SHU is a decent look oftentimes, I'm also looking to fade Villanova after a scorching hot February.

Looking at the chart above from Bart Torvik, Villanova took three's at a top 50 clip and allowed three's at a top 10 clip. Basically, the games come down to who is on from beyond the arc, and Nova laps the field. The Wildcats are shooting over 38% while allowing teams to shoot just 29%.

I don't believe the team will maintain its form from beyond the arc and against an elite Seton Hall defense that pressures the ball well, the Wildcats are due for a setback.

Villanova has been upgraded quite a bit, but a lot of this is just a three-point variance. Per ShotQuality, the Wildcats are due a near four percent drop from three and to allow a more than a three percent increase in expected three-point percentage on defense.

I'll take the home favorite to win outright.

PICK: Seton Hall ML (-118)

Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas Prediction and Pick

In the first meeting between these two, North Texas went toe-to-toe with last year's Final Four surprises FAU, losing in the final seconds despite leading for much of the second half.

The two meet again in Denton, Texas on Wednesday with the Mean Green likely getting defensive ace Rondel Walker back from an illness. However, what will be different from the first meeting is Rubin Jones' return.

The senior wing is not only a floor spacer (37% from three-point range) but is another key cog in the UNT defense. The Mean Green are allowing 13 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor this season, including a staggering 21% turnover rate.

FAU's defense continues to be an eye-sore, especially inside, where the team is allowing the second-highest two-point field goal percentage in the league. On the road, the Owls' defense will cost them again against a full-strength North Texas squad.

PICK: North Texas +2

Indiana vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick

Indiana has seemingly revitalized its season with two straight wins at home against Wisconsin and on the road against Maryland, but I believe the team will struggle against Minnesota at 'The Barn.'

While many will point to the Gophers' insane against-the-spread mark (24-5 this season), there is evidence to back Minnesota at home.

The Hoosiers have gotten Xavier Johnson back from injury, but the team still can't be trusted on the road, a group that is outside the top 10 in the conference in turnover rate, offensive rebounding rate and free throw rate allowed.

All of these can be exploited by a Minnesota team that is elite at finishing around the rim, 21st in the country in near proximity field goal percentage according to Haslametrics, and pressure the ball at an above average rate. Further, the team is physical inside, third in free throw rate in league play.

While Indiana has the size down low to score from in close, the team is tops in Big Ten two-point percentage, Minnesota's defense is top 40 in the country in field goal percentage at the rim, and I'm willing to go down with Indiana's mid range jumpers not falling on the road.

Looking at the first meeting, a 12-point HoHoosiersoiers win, the Gophers did just fine on the inside, shooting 51% on two's, but a dismal 15% from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, the listless perimeter offense of Indiana shot 43% from beyond the arc. I see the roles flipping in this one and the Gophers win and cover.

PICK: Minnesota -5.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!