We needed Texas to end their game against Texas State on a 28-8 run to escape the reverse sweep by the skin of our teeth, finishing 1-2.
It's been a rough couple of weeks betting on college basketball, so we're going to change things up today. Lately, I've been betting on teams who have put up great stats so far and betting against teams who have stunk up the court. When I do that, good teams have their worst performance of the season and some of the worst teams in the country decide to finally play well.
So, tonight we're going to fade some overperforming teams and bet on a couple of underperforming teams in hopes of turning around our luck. Is this a big brain move that's likely going to backfire? Possibly, but I'm going to try it anyway.
If you want to bet on (or against) these picks, you should do so at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you click the link below to sign up for an account, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets instantly when you place your first $5 wager!
Best NCAAB Bets Today
- Maryland +3.5 vs. Indiana
- Fresno State +14.5 vs. BYU
- Saint Mary's -3.5 vs. Boise State
Maryland vs. Indiana prediction
Maryland has got off to a rough start this season in the shooting department, ranking 263rd in effective field goal percentage. Indiana, on the other hand, comes in at 60th in effective field goal percentage. Normally, I'd consider betting on Indiana since they're the much better shooting team, but we're not doing that today. We're zigging instead of zagging and taking Maryland.
It's encouraging to know Maryland comes in at 80th in effective possession ratio, so the Terps' shooting numbers should see some positive regression sooner or later. Hopefully that begins tonight.
Fresno State vs. BYU prediction
BYU has been on fire this season and I've already won two bets on them this season. BYU is 11th in effective field goal percentage, fifth in defensive efficiency, and second in rebounding. That means the Cougars should be able to crush a team like Fresno State that ranks 103rd, 240th, and 50th in those three respective stats, right?
We're betting on regression from BYU tonight, a team that, on paper, shouldn't be as good as its metrics so far this season.
Saint Mary's vs. Boise State prediction
Saint Mary's might be the most underperforming team in the country. The Gaels are just 3-4 and rank just 290th in effective field goal percentage this season. I can't think of a better team I want to buy low on more than Saint Mary's.
Regardless of what goes on offensively, the Gaels are far superior defensively to Boise State so they can lean on their defense tonight if their shooting remains cold.
But, don't be surprised if Saint Mary's has its best shooting performance of the season.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!