Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today, Wednesday March 13th (How to Bet Conference Tournaments)
By Reed Wallach
Conference tournament play is in full swing with a boatload of action on Wednesday, tipping in the early afternoon and spanning well into Thursday on the East Coast.
Some of the conference tournaments tip off today, like the PAC-12, I'm also focusing on a few games in the first window in the ACC and Big 12 Tournaments. Notre Dame continued its strong finish to the season by holding off Georgia Tech in the first round of the ACC Tournament, can the team spoil Wake Forest's season as big underdogs?
Meanwhile, TCU and Oklahoma may be closer to the bubble than the teams would like heading into the final days before Selection Sunday, can one team ease some concerns with a second-round victory in conference play?
Here's three bets I'm eyeing on Wednesday, for more bets, make sure to check out my betstamp @rw33.
College Basketball Season Long Record: 157-145-7 (+8.03U)
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Best College Basketball Bets Today
- Virginia Tech/Texas ML Parlay
- Notre Dame +8.5 vs. Wake Forest
- Oklaohma vs. TCU ML
Virginia Tech vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick
This matchup sets up nicely for the Hokies, who haven’t been bothered by FSU’s intense ball pressure. While FSU leads the ACC in turnover percentage, Virginia Tech has been able to run its offense just fine in the two meetings, leading for much of the first meeting against Florida State (shooting about 50% from the floor) and then out-classing the Seminoles at home despite a down shooting game.
The result of this neutral floor game is likely somewhere in the middle, but the team has been able to offset some of the pressure FSU provides with its elite shot-making. The Hokies take threes at the third-highest rate in ACC play and do a great job of opening up shots for the likes of Hunter Cattoor (41% three-point shooter) and stretching the defense out with Tyler Nickel (39%).
This leaves driving lanes for Pedulla to get a head of steam and draw fouls or score from in close. The Hokies are tops in ACC two-point percentage and get to the line at a league-average rate.
Florida State’s offense is all about its ability to play in the open court. The team has a transition play rate of 26th in the country, but Va. Tech allows it at a bottom 30 rate. With the team's ability to make teams execute in the half-court, I believe FSU’s offensive efficiency will plummet.
I think Va. Tech can score a victory, but not as interested in laying the point. Instead I'll look to pair its moneyline with Texas.
Kansas State vs. Texas Prediction and Pick
These two teams played just once this season, a slugfest in Austin that the Longhorns won (with little doubt) 62-56. Now, the teams meet on a neutral floor in Kansas City as the Longhorns look to make a second straight Big 12 title run.
This is a battle of the best shooting team in Big 12 play against the best Big 12 defense in that same regard with the Longhorns posting the best effective field goal percentage and Kansas State allowing the lowest.
However, the Longhorns' ability to generate easier buckets with Dylan Disu down low and Max Abmas' gravity on the perimeter can offset concerns against Kansas State's defense and does a good job of sticking to opponents in the pick-and-roll.
Meanwhile, K-State's offense has been an eye-sore all season. The team is 210th in effective field goal percentage and bottom 20 in the nation in turnover rate, per KenPom.
Texas may not be a lockdown defense, but the team has length outside of Abmas to pressure the ball and contest inside. The Longhorns have been struggling to defend the perimeter -- last in three-point percentage allowed in league play -- but are 38th in three-point rate allowed and 35th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim.
I'll parlay the two favorites to advance in their respective conference tournaments, giving me a +143 payout.
PICK: Virginia Tech/Texas ML Parlay
Notre Dame vs. Wake Forest Prediction and Pick
Notre Dame escaped what would've been a terrible meltdown on Tuesday in first-round action at the ACC Tournament, winning (and covering) against Georgia Tech, and now faces Wake Forest in the second round. The Demon Deacons need a win to stay off the NCAA Tournament bubble, but the team's struggles on the road are well documented this season, including a loss in South Bend about two weeks ago to this same surging Irish team, 70-65.
I'll note that this was a brutal spot for Wake Forest, fresh off the infamous court-storming win against Duke so a letdown may have been in store.
With that being said, while Wake Forest led in the second half, Notre Dame's Markus Burton was in control of this game for all 40 minutes, scoring a game-high 31 points while getting to the free throw line 11 times.
The Demon Deacons have struggled to stop a player like Burton, an isolation-heavy player, all season. The team is bottom half of the country in terms of defending iso offense, per ShotQuality, and is bottom third in the country in mid-range points allowed per possession.
Wake Forest is 3-11 straight up on the road and a neutral floor, ranking 336th in Haslametrics away from home rating. This has been an issue all season, and against a compact Notre Dame defense that cleans the glass and shuts off the interior, this game may be tight yet again.
PICK: Notre Dame +8.5
Oklahoma vs. TCU Prediction and Pick
Two teams trending in the wrong direction, I believe TCU has some matchup edges in this one that can carry the team over the reeling Sooners.
The Horned Frogs come in losing three of four, including a brutal loss at home to UCF (which ShotQuality deemed a clear win), but do face an OU team that the team handled by nine at home on January 10th. Since then, Oklahoma has been ravaged by injuries, including Rivaldo Soares.
Without Soares on the floor, the Sooners are scoring about 12 points fewer per 100 possessions and are allowing about two more points on the other end.
The undersized OU frontcourt -- who still won't have junior big man John Hughley -- won't be able to slow down TCU's relentless rim pressure and work on the glass, and I like the Horned Frogs to hold off the Sooners, who have been playing close to a top 100 team than a top 50 team since the beginning of February.
Bart Torvik ranks the Sooners as the 83rd best team in terms of adjusted efficiency while going 4-6 since February 1st. Meanwhile, TCU has remained stable at 37th despite a 4-6 record.
PICK: TCU ML -130
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.