Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz Wimbledon semifinals prediction and odds

Two of the brightest young stars in tennis meet in the semifinals of the 2023 Wimbledon.

World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz meets No. 3 Daniil Medvedev meet at the All England Club with a spot in what would be each players first semifinals at Wimbledon in their respective careers. Alcaraz has had little success on grass before this swing, but has already won a tournament in the lead up to this grand slam and beat Holger Rune in straight sets on Wednesday.

Medvedev has not had as clean of a run to the final after several setbacks on grass this season in addition to needing five sets to get past Chris Eubanks in the quarterfinals. However, Medvedev dominated on serve in the final two sets, can he use that momentum to advance to the finals?

Here are the odds and our best bet:

Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds, spread and total

Spread:

• Medvedev; +4.5 (-120)
• Alcaraz: -4.5 (+100)

Moneyline:

• Medvedev: +225
• Alcaraz: -275

Total: 38.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction and pick

Alcaraz has little experience playing on grass despite being the No. 1 in the world, this is his third time at the grand slam and far and away his best result. In his first appearance, he lost in straight sets to Medvedev, but he has clearly erupted as a player.

The Spainard enters as the rightful favorite, but I believe the Russian No. 3 can contend on Friday. While it took him three hours and five sets, Medvedev played extremely well down the stretch to rally and advance. In set four and five he won 32 of 36 first serve points while getting the ball in play at over 66% on the first serve.

That will be crucial against the always dangerous Alcaraz, who is a machine on the return. However, Holger Rune competed despite the straight sets win for Alcaraz. He only generated three set points and won two of them. He needed a tiebreak to win the other set.

Medvedev has more pedigree than Rune, and a far more potent serve, I'm not sure how many opportunities Alcaraz will get to break serve.

With the big serve on grass, I'm going to take Medvedev to make this a competitive scoreline and potentially spark the upset in the semifinals.

PICK: Medvedev +4.5 Games (-120)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.