Davidson vs. Michigan State Prediction and Odds for NCAA Men's Tournament First Round

Davidson Wildcats guard Foster Loyer.
Davidson Wildcats guard Foster Loyer. / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

You've heard the saying before: January, February, IZZO, April, etc, but is this the month for Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans?

Michigan State is the No. 7 seed in the Midwest region and are set to face an elite offensive team in the Atlantic 10's at-large team Davidson.

The Wildcats bolster an elite offense around big man Luka Brajkovic, can they spring the upset as a No. 10 seed, but slight betting underdogs?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, as well as a statistical breakdown and best bet on the Midwest Region's first round matchup:

Davidson vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread and Total


  • Davidson: +1.5 (-110)
  • Michigan State: -1.5 (-110)


  • Davidson: +105
  • Michigan State: -125

Total: 140 (Over -110/Under -110)

Davidson vs. Michigan State Analysis


  • Overall Record: 27-5
  • ATS Record:20-11
  • Over/Under Record: 18-13
  • SoS: 106th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 117.6
  • Defensive Efficiency: 102.4
  • eFG%: 55.9%
  • FT%: 75.4%
  • 3PT%: 38.7%
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
  • Odds to win National Championship: +20000

Michigan State

  • Regular Season Record: 22-11
  • ATS Record:17-16
  • Over/Under Record: 17-15-1
  • SoS: 11th

  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 111.1
  • Defensive Efficiency: 96.3
  • eFG%: 52.1%
  • FT%: 74.%
  • 3PT%: 38.2%
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: First Four Round
  • Odds to win National Championship: +10000

Davidson vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

This shall be named the 'Foster Loyer Bowl.'

Davidson starting point guard Foster Loyer is a Michigan State transfer and has thrived under head coach Bob McKillop in his senior season.

While revenge will be on Loyer's mind, he may be on the better overall team. Michigan State sputtered down the stretch of the season and I'm far from impressed with Izzo's team that is bottom 30 in the country at turning their opponent over.

Sparty needs to run to generate most of their offense, but Davidson plays at a snail's pace, 304th in adjusted tempo and are top 10 in transition defense.

If this becomes a half court battle, I lean towards McKillop's offense.

Michigan State is 234rd in turnover rate this season and have relied on outlier shot making all season, ranked 81st in ShotQuality's adjusted offensive efficiency metric which grades their record as 16-17 this season, far worse than their 21-12 mark.

Davidson can protect the rock and shoot at a high level, they are ranked 12th in SQ's offensive efficiency metric, and I think they win their first round matchup.

PICK: Davidson +1.5, play to PK

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 98-97-3 for -4.6 units.