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Dayton vs. Rhode Island Prediction and Odds (Bet Flyers as Road Favorites)

By Reed Wallach

Nov 26, 2021; Orlando, FL, USA; Dayton Flyers forward Daron Holmes II (15) passes the ball against
Nov 26, 2021; Orlando, FL, USA; Dayton Flyers forward Daron Holmes II (15) passes the ball against / Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports
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Dayton and Rhode Island are set to meet for the second time this season on Monday after the first matchup generated one of the toughest defensive struggles of the season. The final score ended in a 53-51 Dayton victory that featured 19 points combined in the last 10 minutes.

URI got their best win of the season on Saturday, knocking off Atlantic 10 leader Davidson. Now, they will try to sustain their form against another A-10 contender in the Flyers, who have the best defense in conference play according to KenPom.

Here are the odds for this conference meeting from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Dayton vs. Rhode Island Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Dayton: -1.5 (-110)
  • Rhode Island: +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Dayton: -130
  • Rhode Island: +110

Total: 125 (Over -110/Under -110)

Dayton vs. Rhode Island Prediction and Pick

This matchup is going to come down to what Dayton's offense can do as the defense should have little issue limiting URI big man Makhi Mitchell and the anemic Rams offense. Rhode Island is outside the top 200 nationally in KenPom's offensive efficiency metric and struggle to protect the rock, turning it over on more than 21% of their possessions.

Dayton's defense is forcing more turnovers in conference play, up more than 2% to fourth in A-10 play at more than 20%, but also are elite at rebounding on both ends of the floor. URI might bolster a strong defense, but the team won't be able to score against the length of Dayton's defense. Further, the team is shooting 57% from the free throw line as a team.

Anthony Grant's team struggled to find sound offense late at home in the first meeting against Rhode Island, but there is reason for optimism. The team is posting the best three-point percentage in conference play at nearly 41% and Rhode Island is happy to let teams shoot from outside as the 6'9" Mitchell patrols the paint. The Rams are allowing a 40.3% three-point rate to A-10 foes this season.

I like Dayton to get the job done and win at Rhode Island, especially after the Rams scored an upset win over Davidson in a game that had some outlier free throw shooting from the typically poor free throw shooting Rams (19-of-23 as a team).

LEAN: Dayton -1.5

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 60-52-3 for +5.1 units.

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