Dayton vs. Saint Joseph’s Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Tuesday, Feb. 6 (Back the Hawks at home)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Dayton-Saint Joseph’s. 

Nov 20, 2023; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Saint Joseph's Hawks forward Rasheer Fleming (13) shoots the ball against UK.
Nov 20, 2023; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Saint Joseph's Hawks forward Rasheer Fleming (13) shoots the ball against UK. / Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

No. 17 Dayton kept rolling at home last week with wins over George Washington (83-61) and St. Bonaventure (76-71). Dayton was last on the road Jan. 27, when it dropped its only conference game of the season to Richmond (69-64). The Flyers will try to bounce back as short road favorites Tuesday night against Saint Joseph’s. 

Saint Joseph’s has recovered from an 0-3 start to Atlantic-10 play. The Hawks are over .500 (5-4) in league games for the first time this season after taking out La Salle on the road, 88-82. Saint Joseph’s is a home underdog for the first time this season on Tuesday, can they upset the Flyers? 

Here’s the betting preview for the conference clash with a best bet. 

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Dayton vs. Saint Joseph’s odds, spread and total

Dayton vs. Saint Joseph’s betting trends

  • Dayton is 11-9-1 ATS this season
  • Saint Joseph’s is 13-9 ATS this season
  • Dayton is 8-8 ATS this season as a favorite
  • Saint Joseph’s is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season
  • The OVER is 11-10 in Dayton games this season
  • The OVER is 13-9 in Saint Joseph’s games this season

Dayton vs. Saint Joseph’s how to watch

  • Date: Tuesday, Feb. 6
  • Game time: 8 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Michael J. Hagan Arena
  • How to watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
  • Dayton record: 18-3 (8-1 A-10)
  • Saint Joseph’s record: 15-7 (5-4 A-10)

Dayton vs. Saint Joseph’s key players to watch


DaRon Holmes II: Holmes seems destined to be named the A-10 Conference Player of the Year with the way he’s led the Flyers back to national prominence this season. Holmes is 30th in the country in scoring at 20 points per game to go with 7.8 rebounds. The 6-foot-10 junior forward was at his in Dayton’s win over St. Bonaventure Friday, scoring a season-high 34 points on 10-of-15 shooting to go with 7 rebounds and 4 blocks. 

Saint Joseph’s

Rasheer Fleming: The 6-foot-9 forward has made the sophomore jump after starting 18 games as a freshman. Fleming is averaging 11.2 points per game, is top-5 in the A-10 in field goal percentage (54.3%) and is the Hawks’ leading rebounder (7.4). Fleming has scored in double figures in three consecutive games and is coming off a 17-point night in Saturday’s road win over La Salle. 

Dayton vs. Saint Joseph’s prediction and pick

Saint Joseph’s is playing its best basketball of the season ahead of its biggest game of the year. The Hawks are home underdogs for the first time all year and have been up to the task against the top teams in the country this season.

Saint Joseph’s is 1-1 straight up and 2-0 ATS against ranked opponents this year, losing to then-No. 16 Kentucky in overtime at Rupp Arena in November before beating then-No. 18 Villanova on the road nine days later. 

The path to a home upset of Dayton goes through St. Joseph’s defense. The Hawks are No. 133 overall in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and are No. 57 in effective field goal percentage and No. 59 in defending shots from inside the arc. Can they contain the perimeter? Dayton is the No. 7 three-point shooting team in the country and St. Joseph’s is above-average defending from beyond the arc, ranking No. 105 in the country and fifth in the ACC against triples (32.4%). 

Dayton’s offense plays at the No. 349 pace, which could prevent the Flyers from pulling away and could explain why they’re just 4-4 as a favorite in A-10 play. Saint Joseph’s offense is No. 3 in the ACC in scoring (77.9 points per game) and the Hawks’ starting lineup features five double-digit scorers, led by Erik Reynolds II (17.9), and ranks No. 30 in 3-point shooting and No. 40 in effective field goal percentage. 

Saint Joseph’s offense can take advantage of a Dayton defense that doesn’t force turnovers (No. 280) and struggles to rebound. Take the Hawks as short home underdogs. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.