Dayton vs. VCU Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Friday, Feb. 9 (Take Flyers on Road)
By Reed Wallach
Dayton, the top team in the Atlantic 10 and making a bid for the best mid-major team in the country, takes its talents on the road Friday for conference action against VCU.
The Rams have seen its team come together after a slow start due to transfer issues to key guys like Sean Baristow, emerging as a threat to the Flyers in A-10 play. This game is lined as a near-coin flip, can the Rams hold up against the vaunted Dayton offense?
Here's our betting preview:
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Dayton vs. VCU Odds, Spread and Total
VCU vs. Dayton Betting Trends
- Dayton is 12-9-1 against the spread (ATS this season
- VCU is 14-9 ATS this season
- VCU has gone UNDER in 13 of 23 games this season
Dayton vs. VCU How to Watch
- Date: Friday, February 9th
- Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
- Venue: Stuart C. Seigel Center
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
- Dayton Record: 19-3
- VCU Record: 15-8
Dayton vs. VCU Key Players to Watch
Dayton
DaRon Holmes: There is arguably no more impactful player in the mid-major ranks than Holmes, who is averaging nearly 20 points on almost 55% shooting with seven rebounds per game. However, he's also a monster on defense, swatting more than two shots per game for the top team in the conference.
VCU
Max Shulga: Shulga has been on a tear in A-10 play, shooting north of 44% in conference games, sixth highest in the league, while also getting to the free throw line at a top 10 rate. The Utah State transfer has unlocked this VCU team that has surged towards the top of the league.
Dayton vs. VCU Prediction and Pick
VCU's offense is reliant on getting in transition and creating easy buckets, the team is 67th in transition rate, per ShotQuality, and scoring at the 12th highest clip per possession. However, Dayton's methodical style will shut this offense down. The Flyers are bottom 15 in transition rate allowed and top 60 in points allowed per possession.
The Flyers are second in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric in confernece play, based around a compact that defense that contests perimeter shots and drag possessions out. The Rams are shooting 40% from beyond the arc in league play, but are going to struggle to get quality looks against the Flyers defense that is 35th in effective field goal percentage.
Meanwhile, the VCU defense is shutting down teams to the fifth lowest effective field goal percentage in the entire country, but the team will struggle with Holmes down low. The Rams have one player 6'10" or taller to matchup with Holmes, big man Christian Fermin. If the team needs to send extra coverage towards Holmes, Dayton will cook in this one, shooting 40% from three this season, the sixth highest in the country.
Dayton will grind this game to a halt, the team is 347th in adjusted tempo, and outduel VCU's shooting from the perimeter with its more diverse offense, leading to a Flyers road win.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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